Saturday, May 14, 2016

Crime, Error, or "Corrupt Regime" Take Your Pick on the Failure of Kiev

Crime, Error, or "Corrupt Regime" Take Your Pick on the Failure of Kiev
Even if toddlers were interested in politics, they would produce more accurate predictions about the next round of negotiations in Minsk format. Starting from Paris, where Merkel and Hollande sternly said Poroshenko on the correctness of the Russian position regarding the need to fulfill the signed agreement, and not to invent their own interpretations of Ukrainian, Kiev is engaged in outright sabotage.

To break the reluctance of the Ukrainian authorities to implement the peace plan could not only Europeans, but Americans. It did not help either threats to deny funding nor the promise to lift sanctions against Russia.

Firstly, in Kiev do not fully believe that the West will abandon them. Their confidence is not as strong as it was two years ago. But, nevertheless, the Kiev authorities continue to severely overestimate the importance of the Ukrainian project for the West. In particular, they do not understand that the West was not any need Ukraine, and capable, and critically are not able to take into account the time factor. Any project can be implemented only in a certain period of time. People say that "the road spoon for dinner".

 Secondly no matter how painful and even fatal for Ukraine's deprivation funding, no matter how annoying the Kiev "evrointegratoram" suddenly to see how the EU through their heads a long time shaking the outstretched hand of Russia, but for the leaders of the regime's own shirt closer to the body. Even if they have not studied the example of Somalia and South Sudan, intuitively they understand that the population can become extinct, and the state crumble, but certain leading representatives of this state can be rich and very good feel. At the same time, the beginning of implementation of the Minsk agreements is responsible for the top mode the danger of physical elimination.

Even Russian patriots love to build theoretical constructs, suggesting that impoverished and endangered Ukraine is able to stabilize and exist forever, by growing radishes in home gardens and heating of country houses dung. 

Interested Ukrainian politicians and experts, were still optimistic. The same people who three years ago claimed that people will not tolerate the "corrupt regime" of Yanukovich, because life is not improving rapidly, now no less zealously argue that corrupt regime Poroshenko, in which life is deteriorating rapidly, people are willing to tolerate as many as in Ukraine, the climate is better than in Yakutia.

In General, when there is no escape, people prefer to hope for the best and are afraid to make any sudden movements that could destroy the already shaky Ukrainian power structure.

Therefore, neither Russia, nor Germany, nor France, nor the US, nor all of them put together will not be able to break the persistence of the Ukrainian politicians. They rightly believe that while the government in Ukraine, at least nominally, in their hands, no serious penalties, even confiscation of foreign property) they are not threatened. If they lose power, you can lose not only assets, but also life. 

That Washington, Moscow or the Franco-Germans will send an army they do not believe – who need to win the ashes, into which they turned Ukraine? And their own Nazis afraid of fire. The fighters – the only real power in the Ukraine. Neither the police nor the army, nor even the people (even the Maidan its part) will not defend all hate the ruling clique from the armed to the teeth, well organized, with complex structure infiltrated in the power structure of the Nazi fighters regiment "Azov" and his "civilian corps" - the most conspicuous but not the only example).

Because the leaders of the Ukrainian regime are not playing chess, and politics, they are not formally bound to make moves in terms of zugzwang. So they are trying to do nothing. The mantra of "freezing" the conflict in the Donbass, coming from Kiev since the beginning of 2014 changed the sign from minus to plus. If earlier Russia was accused that she wants to freeze the conflict, to have the lever of pressure on Ukraine, and now Kiev itself declares that it would be better to leave it as is until better times.

All of requirements of Western partners to begin a simulation run of the peace process are ignored. All repeatedly transferred terms of start of process of constitutional amendments passed. In the position of Kiev does not change anything. And will not change. The level of intellectual security mode does not allow not only to look for a third way, among the two is bad, but even to anticipate the results of your own inaction.

The fact is that in politics the lack of progress, too, so that passivity does nothing to improve the position of Kiev, but worsens as the Ukrainian authorities withdrew from the initiative and moved in response to external stimuli. Strategically this is absolutely a losing position even for a player possessing the resource of absolute superiority. For Ukraine, a resource base that is so vanishingly small that it begins to seek to negative values, it's a sure and quick collapse.

Consider only the aspects related to the Minsk agreements. That Kiev had at first?
The coordinated position of the international community, States that DNR/LNR part of Ukraine, obliged, though on special terms to return to its constitutional space. The only difficulty I had was one to the moment of signing the Minsk agreements, Kiev has managed to do some fighting in the Donbas has killed thousands of people, destroyed cities and enterprises, thousands took up arms. Between Kiev and DNR/LNR in addition to the initial ideological divide, lay the blood, hatred and distrust. In order to begin to overcome the consequences of the conflict are the Minsk agreement provided:
  • the cease-fire;
  • the withdrawal of heavy weapons;
  • the gradual disengagement of the parties;
  • the exchange of prisoners in the format "all for all";
  • Amnesty for all combatants;
  • the lifting of the economic blockade of Donbass;
  • the resumption of its budget financing;
  • the restoration of the destroyed at the expense of Kiev.
Only then would begin the constitutional process and only at the last stage, after giving full completely satisfied Donbass security guarantees Kyiv could receive the opportunity to participate in the existing regional political processes, as well as formally, through the incorporation of power structures the DNR/LNR in Ukraine, to gain control over the border. It was not a victory of one party, but a compromise that allowed formally to preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine, as of early April 2014 (without Crimea).

The Ukrainian authorities were given the opportunity to emerge from civil conflict without territorial losses, by reducing the weight of the Central government, the transfer of powers to the regions and the establishment of joint control over the administrative mechanisms, the arms control and foreign policy from the Pro-Western and Pro-Russian forces. 

Thus, all who illegally took up arms (on both sides) had little to fear criminal prosecution. The exception was crimes against humanity and war crimes. Since they are subject to international criminal prosecution without time limitation, any warranties they can't be absolute, because the prosecution may be initiated in another country and through a long period of time (as, for example, began the prosecution of Pinochet). But at that time, the number of people who could be prosecuted under these articles, both sides were less than five hundred people, and really fear for their future could less most lighted hundreds of activists and top Kiev officials and officers of the armed forces who gave the unlawful orders.

It cannot be said that the plan was easy to implement. But, according to this scheme stopped the civil war that ran for decades and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. It is obvious that the Ukrainian crisis could be inferred from the acute phase for this scheme. And then, in the framework of the political struggle, Ukraine's future could be multivariate, most importantly, that the decision would have been possible without the blood, result of long negotiations and in the framework of the constitutional process.

Unlikely to be its unity managed to save, but the option of the Czechoslovak divorce was preferable than Yugoslav.

As we know, Kiev Minsk plan is formally adopted, but in reality sabotaged. Moreover, the Ukrainian leadership and the media, is inadequate in assessing what is happening and relying on the unconditional support of the West, and also for the imminent collapse of Russia, launched a campaign to discredit the Minsk agreements. They were presented to Ukrainian society as a Ruse, allowing to gain time and prepare for war. Almost every supporter of implementation of Minsk was proclaimed a traitor. Year of such propaganda was closed for Kiev the possibility of a position change. The power of now is not able to explain to the people why the people suffered so, if the fact that yesterday was a betrayal, today is a necessity.

But Kiev has put himself in another trap. Even if you ignore the fact that warfare is of low intensity, including the shelling of residential areas of Donbass cities all this time continued, and thus the abyss hatred of Donbass Ukraine is not decreasing but increasing, it is necessary to consider that the region simply could not live in conditions of complete economic blockade. By the fall of 2014 on the territory of the DNR/LNR has created a humanitarian disaster, to alleviate which allowed only massive humanitarian supplies from Russia. However, to completely overcome its consequences DNR/LNR it was necessary to restore its own economy.

Similarly, it was necessary to reconstruct the administrative hierarchy, to revive public services, to restore the work of schools and Universities. It was necessary to register births and deaths, to issue diplomas, certificates and passports.

Provided that Ukraine would begin the process, all these processes would have occurred in its legal framework and with her participation. But Kiev refused from this approach, hoping that in DNR/LNR the population will not sustain difficulties and would love to kill him Ukraine.

As a result, of the Republic were forced to actually integrate into the ruble zone. Their external trade (even with the Ukraine) is also carried out through Russia (albeit with the use of "Ossetian window"). They are unable to seek the issuance of Russian passports, but began to issue their own documents, in fact, recognized by Russia. Over the past year, Donbass technically quietly left the Ukraine more than the result of military action. And each new step has increased the number of difficulties for reintegration into the Ukrainian legal space.

The war hardened people, but the practice of history shows that such bitterness can be overcome relatively quickly after the onset of peace. But the failure of Kiev from the implementation of the peace plan led to the creation of the new, divorced from the Ukraine system. In fact, the same thing happened that with the republics of the USSR, after the collapse of the Union. In the first couple of years of political and economic systems of the new States were almost identical. At first, people and boundaries, I never noticed and citizenship could change just moving from town to town. It seemed that a simple political solution and the next day again there will emerge a unified country.

But gradually, each state has developed its legal system and, one day, it became clear that even with a strong desire to implement even just economic integration initiatives is not easy. There were too many conflicting private and corporate interests.

And so unbeknownst to the Donbass from Kiev, the self-proclaimed state was unrecognized. The difference in one word. But, while the Republic fought back from the volunteer battalions, while continuing to preserve the Ukrainian administrative hierarchy, the Ukrainian documents related to the Ukrainian financial system, etc., they actually were part of Ukraine that did not recognize the legitimacy of the acting Kiev authorities. That is, the change of power in Kiev, or the ability available to achieve recognition of its legitimacy (albeit at the expense of considerable concessions) easily turned independent Republic in the Autonomous region of a Federal Ukraine.

As soon as the Republic has created new political, military, financial and economic institutions, cut off from Ukraine and Russia-focused, there was a huge number of private and corporate interests, for whom the restoration of the Ukrainian authorities, even on the basis of a confederal relationship has become unacceptable. The funny thing is that these interests are present not only in DNR/LNR, and not only in Russia but also in Ukraine and even in the EU and the United States, the structure of which is in the Ukrainian market place left by the Donbass.

Within one and a half years of sabotage of the Minsk process Ukraine itself complicates the possibility of returning republics in Kiev with a single legal space and at the moment made it almost impossible.

The best justification for the latter thesis is another sharp change in the position of the West during the last inconclusive meeting of foreign Ministers "channel four". Kiev was openly said that he has exhausted the loan is not trust, but the patience of its European partners that he's got one last chance to start urgently to fulfill the Minsk and that if he this chance will not take advantage of the West, who "only ten little minutes" "strips with a responsibility for the life of Your lordship."

Such a tough public demonstration usually streamlined West (which with Yanukovych for two hours before his overthrow and prepared the killing continued to cuddle) is caused not only irritation Ukrainian blatant sabotage, but to a greater extent, the understanding that the process of disintegration of Ukraine and rejection from her DNI and the LC has gone so far that ten little minutes" in fact already expired and "the life of Your lordship's" not worth breaking a penny.

The Kiev regime was able to commit and offence (starting a civil war), and the error that is worse than the crime itself. It isolated itself and began to self destruct.

Rostislav Ishchenko 

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