Sunday, December 27, 2015

"Syria weekly review: The results of the first phase of the war. "

"Syria weekly review: The results of the first phase of the war. "

 
by Yurasumy


In Syria there is one very important event. Rather is still an event. I really hope that soon these messages will cease to be an event and become commonplace. A country tired of war and this is already obvious to everyone.

Who's "moderate" climbs as well.

In southern Damascus, another large group of opponents of the government chose to negotiate.
That catches the eye.
The firstis that in Damascus there is virtually no separate sectors, where it is possible to separate ISIS from neigel. From 4 500 fighters, less than half turned out to be irreconcilable (LIH and "al-Nusra), and most of those "opposition" that the war is already tired ... and they don't want to leave the land of their ancestors and want to receive Amnesty.

Possible to have different attitudes to this event. But killed 2 500 of "opposition" the Syrian people have chosen peace and nobody an unknown number of soldiers of the army of Assad is a shutout.

This is a very important point that I keep repeating to September 30. The most important part of anti-terrorist operation in Syria is not military, but political. It is very important to divide people into those who are willing to live peacefully in a new Syria and those who have to separate and ... environment.
Second. Obviously don't get out of the followers of ISIS from Damascus those 2 500 people did not lay down the weapon. The example of HOMS a few weeks ago showed that reconciliation is possible, and the delamination of the militants in the group. Damascus showed that HOMS was no accident, but regularity. It is obvious that this operation will be conducted in other parts of the city and the country.
Thus, the government solves a lot of problems. It cleans up the rear. Not only from militants, but from the part of the "peaceful" population, which at any moment can hit you in the back. Moreover, it infiltrates the urban fabric, where to wage war a lot harder and pushes terrorists into the desert under the blows of the army and the aviation of the Russian Federation.
Having finished, thus, the sweep of the rear, the army will be able to regroup and start the second stage of the war: the destruction of ISIL. Apparently, by February there is a chance to hope that the bulk of operations "in the rear" end.
By this time, I expect major changes in the North. In Idlib, Latakia and Aleppo in February the main part of the opposition or somehow "agree" with the government or they will be defeated.

The UN security Council resolution No. 2254

The second important event of last week (it happened a little earlier, but the last review was not examined in detail) is the adoption of UN security Council resolution on Syria.
Resolution No. 2254 on Syria in General I estimate it positively. First, it is striking that no obligation regarding the departure of Bashar al-Assad in it is not spelled out. It simply States that it is necessary to adopt a new Constitution and hold elections not later than 18 months (in summer 2017).
It is obvious that the full settlement of the Syrian crisis in the current campaign do not wait. Although I'm sure that the defeat of ISIL and other terrorists will be done in the 2015-2016 campaign. Also resolution 2254 does not involve the creation of supra-national contingents and agencies that will decide for the Syrian people. That is 18 months it is the government of Bashar al-Assad will decide who and on what basis is fighting in Syria. And this was signed by all permanent members of the UN ST: Russia, USA, China, UK, France. This diplomatic victory, have consolidated the military gains of recent months and narrowed the space for maneuver as the U.S. and Turkey.

The Bluff Of Saudi Arabia.

The third interesting event (or news) is a Pro-Saudi coalition, which the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced on December 15. Many countries that in the media-it was signed, expressed surprise about it that suggests this event is an attempt to wishful thinking. Indonesia and Pakistan (and some smaller countries) has officially announced that the coalition has not yet happened.Moreover, the formal conversation is not about the Pro-Saudi coalition against Iran or Russia for war anywhere, and the coalition against terrorism.

And that's a calico. In fact, the widely publicized before the UN security Council meeting on Syria a coalition of the far bluff. However recently due to meet the king of KSA and the President of Turkey. Not hard to guess what will go on our topic.

The results of the year.

The adoption of the resolution 2254 on Syria, surrender of militants in the Damascus area and other markers suggests that the first stage of the struggle for Syria is strategically ended in victory prosalovskaya coalition. She seized the initiative, forced the enemy your war plan, achieved notable results and fixed them at the international level. And on that positive note I want to end my last year in this review on Syria. I wish the people of Syria, to the coming 2016. was the first year of peace. Even at the very end.

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