Monday, August 17, 2015

Minsk Today Died: Even the parts which were originally performed are now discarded

today at 12:40 pm

Minsk Today Died: Even the parts which were originally performed are now discarded
The war is on the threshold. In Donbass they are now restless. Artillery shellings in the last two weeks are on the rise, the number of calibers used increased. Many new Killed civilians, killed by Nazi soldiers. Hospitals and clinics primarily evacuate the wounded before the fighting begins the overflowing. 

All forces are on high alert and ready at any moment to advance in accordance with the disposition of the items staffs If the war can not be avoided ? Talk about summer campaign began immediately after Debaltseve. Built justification cited calculations. But the war did not start. Kiev finished with great difficulty mobilizing wave (by the way, now just ended). He graduated with shortfalls. I spent two waves of demobilization and preparing to host the third. 

Prior to October 1, according to statements by Poroshenko. And the rioters mobilized third wave is already released from harm's way. So, the meaning has to rebel. Republic during that time ended their mobilization, and the soldiers have undergone initial training (at least 3 months). A war is not started, and did not start. Political aspects. Minsk talks. The war will not start without a good reason. You can arbitrarily negative about the Minsk process (I, too, from the first day do not believe in this format), but today it is a factor of the war in the Donbass, which rely primarily Europeans. 

They do not need war, under any scenario, they are kept for this factor, hoping that the Minsk talks end with something tangible. Although, perhaps, more in words. Minsk today died. Even those parts of the agreements, which were originally performed, have already discarded. The political part of Minsk, after much maneuvering and voting perverted not suit anyone (that it was necessary to try so). On the nose elections, stated in February, but they have already announced such that contradict the initial agreement. So, the Minsk-2 died.

Speaking of elections. Kiev goes to the local elections. Official campaign should start in a week. But so far, there has been unusual for this time of political lull. No statements made ​​in the run-up, no conventions, and other arrangements. And this after Poroshenko announced the decentralization and the new local authorities should receive the alleged megapolnomochiya by sawing budgets. Kyiv political beau monde obviously waiting for something. Not all cards on the table, the situation may change, so it is unclear whether the elections themselves, and if so, is the slogan for the main stage of the case. 

Such a situation of balance favorable Poroshenko. He knows exactly what will happen or what will not be, and therefore safely locked with a "hit" and divides the political arena of the country. In this case, Kiev is extremely profitable, not from war to keep military pressure on the front line (exactly what happens). On the other hand the "Popular Front" Yatsenyuk announced that they are taken to the reserve. That is, they would lose all their influence on the processes in the country. And it is not only the prime minister, but Avakov and Turchinov. That is, two people who could easily provoke a war, if it be the will of the "hawks" in Washington. 

Do not forget that in the United States started a major political race for the presidency. And it is now defined, with some slogans each of the candidates go to the polls. Ukrainian war for the "hawks" can now be the way. And by the way, it can be ... all the race. And even the defeat in the war they are 100% pay for their own benefit, destroying policies of Obama on the "soft power." In the distant / near the northern capital. Moscow present situation in generally satisfied. 

Yes, Minsk-2 died, but her main task he fulfilled: the effects Minsk-1 overcome Kiev can no longer put pressure on the toes of the Kremlin. In fact, creating and providing BCH, Moscow did not formally penalized, and Kyiv can not formally prevent it. But recall that for Moscow Minsk-2 was not an end but a means to the situation translated into a new channel. Russia opted for a long scenario in which "HUNTOVSKAYA" Ukraine is slowly dying economic and ideological (that we are now witnessing). 

And then it's time for a quick and dramatic change of tactics. And this time, X may happen at any moment. Because Kiev quietly and peacefully does not want to die. He simply did not allow Washington. Economic aspects of economy of Ukraine is not to please neither Washington nor the junta, much less population that feels it all in their own skin. In the spring and summer of 2015 did not happen stabilization. The fall in GDP in the second quarter relative to the first, the military showed the failure of hope. This is the best possible quarters, and that will be in the fourth, when the industry will rise again, and the population will start to pay / no pay for utility tariffs? Chance of rebellion, which must repay or lead.

By the way, the US is preparing cadres for all possible options. Including this. But the problem with the economy is not only in Ukraine but also in Russia. The decline in GDP in the same quarter left 4.6% compared to the previous. Yes, at times it is easier than in Ukraine, but nonetheless palpable. There are also problems in the economies of the EU. The sanctions imposed on Russia to supply the United States, beating all. Local business rages and demands "adequacy" of their governments. Governments in the US puppets in Europe more difficult to justify a hard line toward Moscow. Peace for this is the worst background. 

Now, if a new war, then it would be easy to justify all: and sanctions, and their strengthening. And as a consequence of further weakening economies in Europe and Russia. Yes, it will finish the Ukrainian economy, but it and so the pipe. The only beneficiary of the war in this respect are the United States, and they have all the strings that you can pull over. The war as a means of political maneuver. There for Washington and another plus from the close of the war . With an unsuccessful campaign can easily make one change to the other puppets. Fast and reliable. And then to freeze the conflict ... until next needed. Thus, Ukraine could become a reusable tool for solving problems of the US. 

I'll just periodically start and finish phase of the war. In any case before the US presidential election in Ukraine, which will leave at the same time, enough is enough. When constructed scheme Russia and the republic will not be able to avoid war. VSN will tread on the front, and the US in geopolitics. And so on until such time as Russia did not dare to qualitatively change the game itself, throwing map new ideas and new energy. 

While this desire is not there, so ... Conclusion. In general, the situation is heading for war. And the war want to just those forces that it can easily start. The fact that the junta will lose the war at the front, I have no doubt. But at the same time, activity BCH new territories and cities will facilitate short-term goals the United States and Russia to complicate the task. And Russia will be pushed to this by all means. Already pushing. The military aspect I understand that is expected of me this aspect. But my opinion is. Just the military aspect of the future potential of the campaign, and the least important. 

I'm not sure that large-scale offensive operations will be, but to speculate "about nothing" can not. First, I completely do not believe in the possibility of a successful offensive APU. Military junta so demoralized that no "encouragement" is not able to stick it in another bag. Such a scenario would be enough to place for Moscow and the republics, I do not believe in it. 

I am sure that if the junta would be similar plans, management VSN even pave the parts junta green corridor in one direction (as almost happened east Volnovakha week ago). So do not let the "distant fiction," and talk about the "reality" that is possible, but not guaranteed by the logic of events. Points, which can and should beat a lot, and all of them are not able to protect the APU. repeatedly stated that hold the front length of 400 km, 40-50 thousand in the two lines is not possible. 

Definitely, there are breaks in which you can easily enter part of the breakthrough. Example - Marinka June 3rd. It was the breakthrough that was not planned, no one was needed and therefore not developed until the end. The Power of Artillery VSN is high enough to quickly destroy the strongholds in the breakout point.Next will panic (as we have seen June 3). And panic is anyway. 

Shadow Ilovaysk, Debaltseve firmly covered APU soldiers, and they were not able to really assess the situation. wedges Kantemir Tank Division will haunt them wherever they appear 10 tanks BCH. Psychologically, APU has already lost the war. When it started, I do not expect the stubborn resistance of at least half of the units of the junta. The moral of their fallen far below the levels that were in the winter. A significant part of the soldiers do not know how to fight. In fact, the annual seat in the trenches gives no knowledge of the soldiers, but to the experience of survival in the shelling. Such an army can neither attack nor defend actively (especially losing an artillery duel). 

On the other side of the BCH are not large enough to drive large-scale offensive action. There are several reasons. Firstly, the size. With 40-50 thousand trained soldiers advance on a broad front is pointless and dangerous. And deep and overturning junta raid Kharkov Moscow will not allow sanctions. We can only take / release or destroy important points for Ukrainian industry to worsen the economic situation in winter 2015-16 gg. Four of these points: Lugansk TPP Uglegorskaya TPP TPP Kurakhovskaya, Mariupol. This conjecture is confirmed by the constant "work" in this direction in recent weeks. 

Personally, I would choose Kurakhovskaya TPP. Why. First, move aside the front od Donetsk, secondly, it is the only major "shunting" TPP of Ukraine, who now works in the third, cut the last rokadnaya highway between the southern and the northern front, but because the maneuver reserves in autumn and spring will dramatically complicated, fourth, access to the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, which would complicate the internal situation there. It is not in the affected area of the main types of artillery systems such as Uglegorskaya or Lugano station. A Mariupol? He is too politicized. Implications for Russia would be enormous. As it is, I do not know. I have not been reported. 

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