Wednesday, July 8, 2015

UFA 2015 - The time of registration of the New World Order

UFA 2015 - The time of registration of the New World Order

BRICS countries themselves are ready to start forming the rules of the world order

Dear comrades. We are with you are present at the central event of this political year, not only in Russia but also in the world. Against the background of the past was a gray summit of G7, in which the main idea was to show the unity of the countries in the fetish of "punishing Russia" disastrous 40th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act of the OSCE and obscure to the present, from the perspective, the G20 summit and the next session of the General Assembly UN (which is not yet clear is the international political bomb or not), starting in Ufa BRICS summit is considered a very significant event.
In itself, holding at the same time in the same city in the conglomerate BRICS and the SCO summit at the same time, plus a meeting of the CSTO, plus working meeting of heads of the EAEC.This tangle of international meetings in the same place at the same time the world has ever seen!
What is its value? The value of this summit is that it actually marks the impending era of the New World Order when actively developing countries are beginning to set development plans for much more than the state is traditionally considered to be developed. In fact, the summit should outline the contours of the global leadership of the BRICS in matters of universal significance.
Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order
If you had to Fortaleza BRICS "club of interests", that at the meeting in 2014 and after, she began to take a more delineated organizational features (BRICS bank, a pool of currencies of the BRICS, a set of consultations, the Parliamentary Assembly of the BRICS).
The summit in Ufa should become a milestone in the strategic planning of a new world political architectonics, to show the world the new forms of institutional collaboration and possibly reveal new internationally-political platform.

Part 1. Expectations BRICS

BRICS throughout the entire period of its existence, lacked the "masses". Arising out of any functional aspect of the club with the same interests, BRICS throughout the cycle of trying not to go beyond the format.
The organization was originally regarded as a platform for conversation the heads of the most rapidly developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) that have a competitive advantage for the future development of India and China - the mass and relatively cheap labor (measured in 2009), Brazil and Russia - natural resources.
At the same time, the creation of a platform of BRIC (BRIC) was a response to the global financial crisis of 2008. First, the structure of the format copied G7 / G8, and to do it sometimes quite comical, adopting, for example, the terminology, such as assistants in the negotiations calling "Sherpas".
Meanwhile, for the last complete cycle of meetings (remember that the first summit was held in 2009 in Ekaterinburg), BRICS has acquired a new shape, principally related to the acquisition of a new place in the international system.
What can we expect from the BRICS summit in Ufa? What is for sure:
1. Development Plan. The main document, which are going to take at the summit of the BRICS is a program for 25 years, the document, which will largely determine the political development of the world until 2040.
This timing planning by themselves derive predictions from the plane to the plane of foresight plans. We have a detailed look at this program as soon as its published.
2. Functional filling tools BRICS. The ideas expressed in Fortaleza 2014 - Bank of BRICS BRICS currencies and the pool on the site will gain a clear outline of Ufa.
Already there are claims that these tools will work until the end of 2015 (at work is understood not just structurally there is almost ready, in principle, before the summit, but really do not dispose of a small monetary fund and implement the first financing).
It is assumed that the structure of the BRICS in Ufa acquire its final shape (BRICS rating agency, Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the BRICS BRICS university network, research center BRICS on global politics and economics). It is possible a decision on the creation of new structural elements, some of which may be a big surprise.
3. Pairing BRICS with regional organizations and components.BRICS appeared in space, which already has a significant number of international organizations specializing in a number of ways. This summit should build a new architecture of interaction between such structures.
The first is a bunch of BRICS and the SCO, given that three locomotives BRICS - China, India and Russia, or part of the SCO, or soon will enter there. Developing forms of cooperation to avoid duplication of agendas and to give greater weight to the decisions of the BRICS.
The format of the interaction of the SCO / BRICS may be potentially transferred to a number of other structures in America (Yunasur / Merkasur) and Africa (SADC / YUATS). Also can be worked out mechanisms of cooperation with BRICS EAzES including in the framework of the project "Silk Road."
The same is likely to be determined by the ratio between the Asian Development Bank infrastructure investment (ABII) and the Bank of BRICS and the potential creation of institutions similar to ABII and their binding to the Bank of BRICS for the regions of Central Asia and Eastern Europe (the bank EAzES), America (US bank infrastructure investment), Africa (African Bank infrastructure investment).
That is, we can talk about the complete building the orbital structure of the BRICS, including partner organizations and official institutions.
What could be:
In Ufa, can occur a few events that can be important:
1. otvyazki from the financial institutions of the United Nations(World Bank and International Monetary Fund). In principle, the statement that the BRICS Bank currency pool and the de facto alter ego of the WB and IMF representatives of India and Brazil have already done.
Statements that these banks do not claim to this role from the Russian Foreign Ministry are nothing more than politeness. Such a global and ambitious institution as the Bank of BRICS simply can not not start with the World Bank elbow.
Another thing that will put an end to the hegemony of the IMF and World Bank. Online BRICS in Ufa in November at the summit of G20, which as usual will not be able to convince the US to give up hegemony in the IMF and World Bank, or at the next summit of the BRICS in 2016. But steps in Ufa will be made anyway.
2. The decision to work on the introduction of the BRICS settlement currency , this currency could become a direct competitor to the dollar in international trade, but the introduction of such a unit of account requires a very significant study. Rather Ufa agreement is reached on the establishment of the necessary structures for the future appearance of the settlement currency - the creation of a system similar to SWIFT, etc.
3. The emergence of militarized areas in the activity of the BRICS.This can occur if a decision is taken on the coordination not only with the SCO and EAzES, but also with the CSTO, at least by creating a single Chiefs of Staff of the CSTO and the SCO countries not members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization under BRICS patronage.
This step alone scare (and not only opponents but also supporters) and China actively disclaims any military alliance between Russia and China. But it's not a union? It is only a step to the meeting.

Part 2: The expectations of the SCO

A unique case in world history merge summit of the regional organization and the global discussion platform for business can result in a lot more. 
It's no secret that the SCO has been considered by many experts as a unique working tool for the solution of urgent problems of the eastern and central Asia. Since its creation, in fact he played only one role - the SCO had become a mechanism, on the one hand to the political expansion of China in Central Asia, and on the other, to contribute to its economic advancement.
This dualism has long poured into misunderstanding of the role of the SCO for the main actors of the process - Russia and China.Russia would like to see the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a platform to discuss key political issues - border conflicts, terrorism and the environment. China regards the SCO as a space to promote their economic projects.
But the most important thing is that the SCO has made over the years, it contributed to the establishment of mechanisms utryasaniya problems honey Russia and China in the current mode of routine work. This form of cooperation worked out showed the inclusion and the harmonious work in such institutions twin-competitive countries, such as China / India, India / Pakistan. The ability to embroider such conflicts is a very important aspect of the work of the SCO.
But what we expect from the SCO in Ufa? Besides rapprochement with the BRICS, obviously there are some things, the implementation of which will be a priority.
What exactly will be:
1. Commencement of full membership in the SCO India and Pakistan . The accession of these states to the SCO (and these states have applied for membership at the summit in Dushanbe last year) would mean actually maturing of the SCO and its transformation of the operational mechanism of resolution of the Russian-Chinese problems in parts of Central Asia, taking into account the views of the countries of Central Asia the most complete international organization.
To this is added the desire to go to the membership of such countries as Belarus (calls itself SCO western corridor), as well as a number of countries ready to become observers and dialogue partners (about 12 countries), including Egypt, which puts the SCO space of Asia and stretches it in Africa and Eastern Europe.
2. The decision on incorporation of SCO transport corridor project of the Silk Road in Central Asia. What surely will be able to agree about is to support the development of the Silk Road Project, which has become the most promising and ambitious transportation project in China.
This SCO can solve a number of problems arise with other countries, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in this matter. Potential accession to the organization of India and Pakistan can afford to supplement the project GSW vertical transport corridor Indian Ocean - Central Asia.
3. Establishment of a mechanism of political confrontation "color revolutions" and a destabilizing factor in Central Asia. One of the current challenges for the SCO has been opposition to the color revolutions that affected even the flagships of the SCO - Russia (Marsh - 2012), and China (Hong Kong - 2014/2015 g).
Obviously, such a factor of instability as the color revolutions, can only hinder the global transport projects, so probably a mechanism to counteract the negative factors in the region.
This will be implemented through a special observer mission that could help in the implementation on the one hand civil dialogue and on the other using the Russian and Chinese media to block the possibility of one-sided coverage of events.
What could be:
1. The beginning of accession to the SCO Iran. Iran has already expressed the desire to join, but on Iran raised the question of lifting the sanctions.
We believe that before the end of the Forum to remove these sanctions do not have time, however, probably will be enough political statement, that the parties in Vienna (six + Iran) have agreed to solve the problem, make a decision about the opening of the road to Iran to participate fully in the future work as part of the SCO.
The potential entry of Iran into the SCO can afford again to embroider a number of conflicts in Central Asia on the one hand and build a vector of influence in the Middle East on the other, turning the SCO into the most influential international association in Eurasia.
2. Participation in implementation of infrastructure projects in Central Asia through the establishment of a special SCO Bank. The bank would be an effective mechanism for financing projects in Central Asia, but its logic rests on the creation of an already created bank (ABII). On this question zaklyuchetsya only, if China wants to finance the Bank along with ABII or not.
3. The format of the joint peacekeeping activities. Among the most difficult issues is a format for addressing issues of security in Asia.
On one side of the Pacific theater is gradually heated, the other in the framework of the SCO have so far avoided discussion about peacemaking, but insecurity in Central Asia and Afghanistan's problems can force decisions on the establishment of a format of decisions on global security in Asia.
As far as the country prepared for this SCO is an open question. The idea for the center of power of the SCO could well be (CSTO brings together the majority of SCO member states), but such a partnership is not happy with all (eg irritates Uzbekistan). So that is an open question.

Part 3: Expectations of the CSTO

Conduct meetings of the CSTO in Ufa introduces an element of sharpness in Ufa agenda. Collective Security Treaty Organization - a unique military-political alliance. He can rightly be called one of the most peaceful military alliances in the world, as the lion's share of its activity falls on teaching and not on the real actions of which you can remember only a few observations, and work to prevent incursion by fighters of the IMU in Uzbekistan (though in the latter case it was not clear whether or not it is the CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization).
This organization was created in fact with one goal - to provide at least some stability in the military sphere in the former Soviet Union. And this mission was, in general, is made.
Meanwhile, it is now for the Collective Security Treaty Organization begins the moment of truth, because the willingness of this organization to defend the interests of the countries of Central Asia in terms of the atmosphere to heat up (LIH, the Taliban, the IMU, etc) and cover the "soft underbelly of Russia" depends on whether there will be further the issue of security in Asia addressed through the CSTO instruments or require another, more delicate instrument.
To suggest that in Ufa questions of collective security will flourish riotous color, of course lightly, but that they will give the summit certainly spice. Meanwhile, the CSTO is both very real plans for Ufa and hypothetical.
What will happen:
1. Establishment of a mechanism to counter the threat of drugs in Central Asia. In fact, the main achievement of which will be at the summit in Ufa, will be to develop mechanisms for collective counteraction to drug trafficking. One of the solutions to be adopted (probably) is a joint action to eliminate narokoproizvodstva in Afghanistan. Given that the expected arrival in Ufa President of Afghanistan, the likelihood of such a decision at large. As the forces and means FSKN Russia and similar agencies in Afghanistan is not enough, there is a possibility of bringing to this task means the CSTO.
2. Development of measures to ensure the safety of the power infrastructure projects in Central Asia. Actually protect the construction of communications of the Silk Road will have exactly the CSTO, so it is in Ufa can be decided on cooperation with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (SCO and BRICS in part) on the subject, including the exchange of intelligence information, support in the territory of the SCO countries in identifying threats, carrying out non-military action to improve the situation in the region.
3. Preparation of the BRICS and the SCO express an opinion on the need to ensure stability in Central Asia and counter the threats posed by LIH and other Islamist organizations. This opinion will express political support for plans of the CSTO and how to give it more political legitimacy (although it already has been in CSTO)
What could be:
1. Ensure the power component of the SCO. Collective Security Treaty Organization, as well as previously written, could potentially provide a mechanism of protection from threats in Central Asia.However, this project has not yet been total support, although the idea that "doing something right" has been in all the SCO member states.
2. Financial support to support the interests of the CSTO (including infrastructure). It can be assumed that at the SCO summit will be questioned about the possibility of the use of funds or assets ABII BRICS Bank to build infrastructure in Central Asia to address the issues of dual purpose.
That is used for both civil and military transport tasks. Thus, banks could easily "invest" in the repair and construction of airfields in Central Asia, railway lines, which could be used for the needs of the CSTO.
3. Introduction of new members of the CSTO. The issue really arises quite often, but it is too complicated to be solved by "memorable date." Moreover, and very specific candidates: China (not yet ready to take an even tougher stance in the confrontation with the United States, and in fact to set up a military alliance with Russia), Uzbekistan (who has twice run away from SCO), Afghanistan (which has many problems that intermeddle there is no desire, no one).

Part 4. Expectations EAzES

Actually Ufa EAzES will be presented in the smallest among the other structures of the format. Just a working meeting of heads of state EAzES very routine event. However, the proximity of Brixen / SCO / CSTO and can give some flavor of the meeting.
It is worth noting that EAzES currently the most actively developing integration mechanism in which Russia participates. A very interesting original form (Customs Union) and the active support of the project by Russia and Kazakhstan makes it very dynamic.
Meanwhile, before the rise EAzES obvious problems, including the fact the two - the further directions of integration (including the single currency) and policies towards third countries, which has manifested as readiness to sign an agreement on free trade zone by the formula "the country - EAzES "that has recently been made with Vietnam, but whether the organization is ready to join its ranks states outside the CIS?
This question is the challenge that will face the obvious EAzES countries in the near future. Meanwhile, the problem EAzEs summit in Ufa quite laconic and modest.
What will happen:
1. The final connection to EAzES Kyrgyzstan. Actually it is "an open secret", as accurately Ufa to all parliaments of the EAzES ratified the treaty of accession of Kyrgyzstan. So specially-prepared piano in the bushes will be required.
2. Adoption of the Memorandum of coordination of positions on interaction with the SCO in the development of the infrastructure projects. Actually a technical paper that will say that EAzES ready to address the needs of the Silk Road in the context of their rules and instruments.
3. Adoption of a number of countries in the documents of the dialogue on creating a free trade zone. Of the countries that will be present in Ufa few expressed a desire and, in principle, nothing prevents clothe this interest in documentary form.
What could be:
1. Solving the problem of transport corridors with Uzbekistan. One of the problems facing the Asian EAzES direction is that Kyrgyzstan is somewhat dependent on the Uzbek communication regarding foreign trade.
Also a potential candidate for membership in EAzES - Tajikistan connects with addressing the issue of transport corridor Uzbekistan participation in the EAzES. Meanwhile, the president of Uzbekistan is known as a very sophisticated politician, so aware of the strategic advantages of Uzbekistan will stick to their line.
Level summit between gives hope that the collective pressure shake the position of Uzbekistan.
2. The application for the accession of Tajikistan to the EAzES.Actually it depends largely on the decision of the first point of possible outcomes. If the issue is resolved with Uzbekistan Application of Tajikistan does not take long.
3. Signing the agreement on free trade zone with Egypt EAzES. Of course, both sides have talked about the interest in this case, however, we believe that the deadline for the implementation of the February agreement on the FTA is too small and the parties may not physically have time to agree on all the issues of the agreement.

Part 5: Environment reaction

In this part unfortunately we add to the analysis will have a fair share of conspiracy.
First of all it should be noted that the Ufa summit itself anybody any problems does not bear because all that will be adopted is already worked out. Meanwhile, in the foreign media reaction to Ufa more nervous.
In general, given the number of arrivals of delegations, the summit is considered a negative US. In fact, such a representative Summit is a stick in the wheel of the American doctrine of "isolation of Russia." So the results of the summit in the western media are silent about the maximum. Although under age "after the establishment of RT» it will be difficult.
Summit Ufa against the backdrop of a very high-profile Greek events, enabling Western media work more on Greece and not by Ufa. At the same time, it is believed that what happened in Greece significantly lowers the likelihood of any adverse action by the EU, as and without them there is now BRICS do. Any loud sensations of Greece at the summit of the BRICS is unlikely to remain. Although potentially interesting topic.
Conspiracy component is that some commentators have tried to link the past problems of China (the fall in stock markets) and Russia (the sharp fall in oil prices) to the activities of the United States.
On the matter (involved in the US or not involved) can not be answered unequivocally (the methodology for solving this problem simply does not), but the emergence of synchronous difficulties at the main actors as it indicates the non-randomness of the process.
Also among the possible future effects can be called - a possible attempt to aggravation of the situation in Ukraine, the intensification of negative trends in Afghanistan and etc.
It should be noted that adequate weapons against the decisions of the BRICS in the United States or Western Europe is not.
Author: Maxim Tyre

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