Wednesday, July 15, 2015

New Published report anonymous high-level professionals group of aviation experts on #MH17

New Look: Boeing could become a victim of the Israeli "Python"

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Published report anonymous group of aviation experts who analyzed in detail the nature of the injuries Malaysian Boeing-777 crashed over the Donbas July 17, 2014. With high probability, they argue that almost three hundred people killed an Israeli missile "Python» (Python), established in the 2000s on the Ukrainian Su-25 during its modernization in Georgia.
US generals see the potential for an attack on the DonbassUS generals see the potential for an attack on the Donbass
The report is published in his blog by "Live Journal" Albert Naryshkin (albert_lex). How this document came to him, it is not known - he wrote only that the report received from the representative of the group of experts, "at various times participated in the investigation of many air crashes. With extensive experience in these matters and having a deep knowledge in the field of aviation, they conducted their own research into the causes of the crash of a Malaysian ship. Source reliable, but to disclose the names of the authors is not going to, if they want, they acknowledge authorship. " Judging by the level of detail and depth of analysis work performed really high-level professionals.

1. Object of research

Camera and video fragments Malaysian passenger plane Boeing-777-200 9M-MRD, crashed 17.07.2014 of the flight, the MH-17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur obtained from open sources.

2. The circumstances of the accident

July 17, 2014 the plane Boeing-777-200 and state registration number 9M-MRD, airlines Malaysia Airlines, operates scheduled passenger flight MH17 from Amsterdam (Schiphol airport, Netherlands) - Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). On board the aircraft were 283 passengers and 15 crew members.
The aircraft was found destroyed near the village of Grabovo (Donetsk region, Ukraine), some large fragments were found in the area of ​​human settlements Rassypnoe and Paul Fortress (Donetsk region, Ukraine). The main location of the wreckage area is 8.5 kilometers east of the last known position of the aircraft in flight. The total area of ​​the spread of debris was about 50 km2

3. The purpose of the study

The aim of the study was to establish the fact of defeat combat aircraft means, the circumstances of the destruction and the characteristics of the means of destruction.

4. The basic materials research

In the study of solved three interrelated and sequential tasks:
• Identification of combat damage;
• determination of conditions of formation of combat damage;
• Identification of the type of impact weapons.
4.1. An analysis of the state of the nature of the external damage fragments of the aircraft
Camera and video fragments of the aircraft were received in the public domain on the Internet.
The evaluation of photographic materials, it was found that the appearance of fragments corresponds to the destruction of the action of loads exceeding its static strength. At the same time on fragments of the cockpit there are specific damage in the form of local holes and dents that are characteristic of compact high-speed impact with hard objects.
Similar damage are on fragments of the inside of the cockpit. Approximately related damage, but a slightly larger size and a lower density arrangement, there are at the toe of the left engine air intake.
All of these lesions (mostly - holes) identified as damage formed high speed objects. Indeed, most of these injuries are signs of wave phenomena accompanying the process of penetration of high metal barriers.
In particular, casing sections, supported by power set inside, deformation of the edges of holes observed in the direction opposite the direction of impact (Fig.1, arrow 1). Such deformation characteristic of the action of the shock wave reflected from the power set. In addition, the surface of the skin in the area of ​​some relatively large holes rash observed microcraters (Fig.1, arrow 2), which are usually formed from the action of high-speed "dust" (unburned explosive fine particles warhead construction details and submunitions ) accompanying the blast at a small distance from the explosion.
On the fragments of the plane, with a relatively thick layer of paint (LPC) on the front surface of the area around the holes observed spalling of the coating (1b, arrow 3), which is also a sign of wave phenomena typical of high-speed impact.
The remaining fragments of the plane found no such damage. Existing single holes on the surface of the left wing (except fragment sock slat) identified as high-speed only in appearance is not possible.
Battle damage to the fragments studied in appearance characteristic of the action high-explosive fragmentation warhead remote means of destruction, the explosion which occurred at a small distance from the surface of the aircraft. Implicit in the arrangement of the regularity of damage suggests that, most likely, the warhead was equipped ready-striking elements, which is typical of high-explosive warheads absolute majority of modern means of destruction of air targets.
The initial rate of submunitions modern remote weapons of destruction of air targets are usually in the range of 1500 ... 2500 m / s.

Figure 1 - A typical appearance of holes in the fragments of the plane.
Arrows 1 - deformation of the edges of the holes from the action of the reflected wave in the direction opposite to the direction of impact. Arrows 2 - high marks "dust" that accompanies the blast at close range from the explosion site. Arrow 3 - site chipping paint (LCP) around the holes, the characteristic steps of the reflected wave.
Thus, damage to the fragments of the plane near the cockpit are fighting, ie, formed by high-speed compact striking elements are most likely ready to type, high-explosive fragmentation warhead remote means of destruction, the explosion which occurred a short distance from the cockpit of the aircraft.
4.2. Determination of spatial conditions destruction of the aircraft
Under the terms of the spatial plane defeat in this case refers to the position of the warhead destruction means (point explosion) relative to the aircraft at the time of the explosion.
Adopted a system of coordinates OsXsYsZs associated with the aircraft in such a way that the origin coincides with the end of the nose cone of the aircraft, OsYs axis directed forward flight and coincides with the construction of the aircraft horizontal axis OsXs directed to the right on the flight, and the axis OsZs - up (Fig. 2).

Figure 2 - Associated with the plane coordinate system is adopted in determining the spatial conditions of defeat.
According to the obtained photos and videos made scheme to bind fragments of the aircraft design scheme of the aircraft type Boeing-777-200 (Figure 3).

Figure 3 - Scheme of binding fragments of the front part of the fuselage to the design scheme of the aircraft of type Boeing-777-200.
Further visual identification was performed battle damage on the external contour fragments of the aircraft near the cockpit and counting (Fig. 4).
Then, fragments of photographs, made at different angles was used to estimate the location of the damage in relation to each other and to steadily identifiable structural nodes (joints, connections) to these fragments. Based on the assessment of damage calculated coordinates in the coordinate system adopted.
In total, the outer contour of fragments A, B, C, D and E, it was estimated 230 injuries, together with the contours of the fragments were applied to a three-dimensional model of the plane type Boeing-777-200 (Fig. 5).

Figure 4 - Exterior portions of fragments A (a, b) and B (c), G (d, e), B (e) and g (x) with numbered battle damage.

Figure 5 - The appearance of the model front part of the fuselage of the aircraft such as Boeing-777-200 with marked outlines of fragments A, B, G, B, D, and battle damage.
4.2.1.Opredelenie position warhead destruction means relative to the aircraft at the time of the explosion
Analysis mutual arrangement combat damage to the surface plane fragments and the overall model showed that, despite the absence of a significant portion of the photo outer contour cockpit observed quite obvious boundaries of the field of the covering (Fig. 6). This fact allows you to accurately assess the spatial conditions destruction of the aircraft.

Figure 6 - The combination of contours fragments (dotted line) and the locations they battle damage (red areas) with the surface of the aircraft analog.
In particular, fragments in combat damage, located near the boundary of the field of the covering are precisely oriented elongated rectilinear trace-segments formed by contact with the striking elements whose trajectories are oriented tangentially to the outer contour of the fuselage in this region (Fig. 7a ). These tangents straight traces, in fact, are preserved and visible part of the trajectory of submunitions, which allows to accurately determine the position of these trajectories in three-dimensional space in a specified coordinate system.

Figure 7 - The surface appearance of fragment B at different sites.
For this purpose, estimated direction of elongation of the tangent to the surface of the track section (angles measured) in relation to the visible structural nodes (ris.7b, c), and then, according to the orientation of the surface region fragment OsXcYcZc coordinate system (Fig. 8), were determined the direction cosines of the trajectories which, in combination with the measured coordinates of the damage, unambiguously determine the position of the trajectories in the space. In turn, the coordinates of the points of intersection (crossing) thus recovered trajectories damaging elements in the space allow us to estimate the position of the point of explosion.

Figure 8 - Position of the fragment in a predetermined coordinate system.
The measurement results showed that a small area of ​​the surface of the fragment B, at a distance of 1 m along the border of the field covering, there is a very significant change in the orientation of traces from 45º to 20º (see. Figure 7).
Analysis of the damage near the boundary of the field covering the remaining fragments revealed several similar traces on fragments of A (Fig. 9) and B (Fig. 10) and D (Fig. 11).

Figure 9 - The appearance of the surface of the fragment D in the border area of ​​the field covering.

Figure 10 - The appearance of the surface of the fragment B in the border area of ​​the field covering.

Figure 11 - The appearance of the surface of the fragment G in the border area of ​​the field on the left side of the covering.
Total 6 were chosen tangent damage on the location and orientation of which managed to quantitatively determine the position of the respective trajectories of submunitions in the selected coordinate system. The calculation results are shown in Table 1.
Table 1 - Results of determining the position of the tangential paths damaging elements in the coordinate system OsXcYcZc

As a result of calculations performed by crossing (mating) trajectories based on the data shown in Table 1, it was found that the point of the explosion is in the area bounded by the following coordinates:
x0 = -1,5 ... -1,9 m; 
y0 = -0.8 ... -1.3 m; 
z0 = 1.8 ... 2.2 m.
The results suggest the following conclusions:
fairly compact area of ​​possible location of the point of the explosion, though it was obtained in four of the five test aircraft fragments, suggests that, most likely, a field covering formed another means of destruction;
the explosion of the warhead of the means of destruction occurred very close to the aircraft, namely, approximately 0.8 ... 1.6 m from the glass cockpit (opposite pane crew commander).
Fig. 12 shows a three-dimensional interpretation of the calculated area of ​​location of the point of explosion.

Figure 12 - The relative position of the reconstructed trajectories of submunitions, the tangent damage.
4.3. Determination of the warhead destruction means
4.3.1.Opredelenie characteristics of submunitions
The nature and size of holes you can estimate the size and sometimes shape submunitions.
In general, the size and shape of the holes formed on the skin of the aircraft struck the striking element, not only depend on the shape and size of the striking element, but also from the angle of his approach to the skin.Therefore, to estimate the size of the striking elements made to measure the transverse dimension of the holes, ie,its size in the direction perpendicular to the velocity vector of the striking element.
Once the position has been determined with respect to the explosion of the aircraft for each breaching its fragments can estimate direction of approach of the striking element, i.e. the projection direction of its velocity vector on the skin surface.
In the present study to assess the size of the available images in relation to the known dimensions of the structural elements (diameter rivets, screws) were studied in 186 holes.
The results showed that the external contour of the transverse dimension of the fragments of the vast number of holes (86%) is in the range of 6 ... 13 mm, with a pronounced maximum around 8 mm (Fig. 13). This allows us to assume that all of the same type of damage formed submunitions (single session). If the warhead contains two or more types of submunitions, then the graph would be observed two peaks or more.

Figure 13 - Histogram of the distribution of holes in the outer contour of the aircraft fragments largest transverse dimension.
The results of estimates of the size of holes available on the photos suggest that the submunitions were in the form of a parallelepiped with sides 8h8h6 with a tolerance of ± 0,5 mm (Fig. 14a).
It simulated the process of breaking the barriers affecting 8h8h6 element sizes (with a tolerance of ± 0,5 mm sides) with its various orientations in space (Fig. 14b), which showed a sufficient convergence of the results with the actual size and shape of holes.
The mass of the striking element is likely made of steel, is 2.4 ... 3.7 g

Figure 14 - Supposed submunitions (a) and modeling of the shape and size of holes formed from it (b).
According to the report submitted by the "Almaz-Antey" (SAM developer of the "Book"), from the fragments of the aircraft were recovered pieces of complex shape, reminiscent of the "I-beam". Based on analysis of the appearance of these fragments it was concluded that the aircraft was shot down by a missile from the air defense system of the "Buk" (warhead of one of its modifications outfitted with steel striking elements in the form of "I-beam").
However, according to the developer, the initial mass of the striking element of the "I-beam" is 8.1 g, which is more than twice the maximum calculated weight. Therefore, the statement that the pieces are extracted shrapnel from the missile type SAM "Buk" are likely wrong.
4.3.2.Opredelenie weight of the warhead on the number of submunitions
Determination of the number of submunitions in the warhead is done based on the assessment angular density of the flow in the meridional sector expansion.
Due to the fact that the angular flux density was calculated from the elements affecting the location of lesions in the cover at a predetermined position of the point of the explosion, it is evident that by changing the position of the point estimate of the density will vary. Accordingly, it will change the angle of the meridional sector expansion submunitions.
Therefore, to determine the number of submunitions have been calculated angular density at different distances from the surface of the explosion of the aircraft (within the calculated field), ie, at a distance of 0.8, 1.2 and 1.6 m, respectively. The maximum estimated value of the number of submunitions in the warhead was 3650 pieces. (Fig. 15).
Assuming that the number of submunitions in the warhead is in the range of 2000 ... 4000 pcs., That, given the results of the evaluation of characteristics of submunitions, their total mass in the warhead must be 4.88 ... 14.80 kg.
Analysis of mass characteristics of high-explosive warheads modern domestic and foreign aircraft weapons purposes has shown that between the weight of the warhead and the total weight of submunitions is sufficiently stable statistical relationship with a correlation coefficient of 0.97.

Figure 15 - The calculation results in a number of submunitions warhead at different distances from the explosion of the aircraft and different orientations relative to the field of the battle of the covering.
This circumstance makes it possible to estimate the mass of the warhead explosion which formed the test field covering on the fragments of the plane. If the round end of the range the total weight of submunitions within 5 ... 15 kg with a 95% confidence level of the mass of the warhead must be 10 ... 40 kg.
4.4. Identification of type of lesion
The study combat damage has been established that the aircraft was struck by remote means of destruction, have high-explosive fragmentation warhead weighing 10 to 40 kg likely curb finished steel shrapnel average weight of about 3 grams with a hypothetical form parallelepiped with sides 8h8h6 mm (with a tolerance of ± 0,5 mm) at 2000 ... 4000 pcs. At the same time there was an explosion of the warhead at a distance of 0.8 ... 1.6 meters from the vents crew commander.
In order to identify the type of means of destruction according to the characteristics of the warhead has been the analysis of publicly available reference materials of well-known domestic and foreign destroy air targets.
As a result of the analysis, it was found that the missiles "air-air" domestic (including Soviet) design and manufacturing, as a rule, are loaded with warheads rod or combined type.
An analysis of the characteristics of the domestic anti-aircraft weapons showed that among them is enough complexes, missile which can hit aerial target at an altitude of 10 km. However, they all have a lot of high-explosive fragmentation warhead significantly greater than 40 kg.
Thus, the complex set of characteristics do not match any one guided weapons air targets domestic development and production of class "air - air" and "surface - air" that can hit aircraft at an altitude of about 10 km.
The analysis of available information on the characteristics of missiles "air-air" overseas development showed that, in contrast to the domestic launch of this class, most of them are loaded with high-explosive warheads with ready-striking elements. Moreover, quite a large number of rockets have a mass of warhead within a specified range.However, the lack of sufficient information on the characteristics of their submunitions does not allow to fully implement the identification procedure.
Therefore, due to lack of sufficient information on foreign weapons of destruction, including destruction of national development funds, but foreign manufacture (modernization), a specific type of set it is not possible.

5. Analysis of the results

As a result of the study it found that the aircraft could not be struck by means of destruction of the domestic development and production. As for foreign funds, then execute on them to identify the type of means of destruction, despite the fairly wide range of specified characteristics of the warhead is not possible due to lack of the necessary background information.
However, the circumstances and conditions of the defeat of the aircraft allow us to make some assumptions.
In particular:
In the affected aircraft to the cockpit under a radome mounted surveillance radar, which operates in active mode during the flight. Therefore, if the missile had a passive radar homing head, it was induced by radiation of this station. In this case, it can be expected to approach the missile fuselage nose.
It should be noted that the guidance of missiles with passive radar head is carried on a side lobe of a radar station working plane. This can be explained not only an approach to the missile fuselage nose, but also the position of the point of the explosion - the side of the station.
Some modern missiles, mostly of class "air-to-air" are loaded with thermal homing head, the so-called matrix type.These heads allow, on the basis of realized aboard the rocket pattern recognition algorithms, to generate near-field image of the target geometry. This, in turn, provides guidance to any missile, as a rule, the most vulnerable area of ​​the target. It is obvious that from the standpoint of efficiency defeat larger airplanes, the most vulnerable area is the cockpit.
Thus, the guidance means of destruction on the plane could be both radar and heat. When radar vectoring means defeat was equipped with homing is most likely passive type, and when the heat - thermal imaging matrix type.
The study was carried out modeling of the destruction of the aircraft in the attack from the front (Fig. 16) and back (Fig. 17) hemispheres.
Simulation results (given proximity fuze operation) showed that the character arrangement combat damage is most likely attack aircraft with the forward hemisphere.
On the criterion of "mass warhead" in the review fall four foreign missiles "air-air":
• French short-range missiles such as «Magic-2";
• Israel's short-range missiles such as «Shafrir»;
• American short-range missiles such as «AIM-9";
• Israel's short-range missiles such as "Python".

Figure 16 - Simulation results of defeat when approaching aircraft missiles to the aircraft during the attack from the front hemisphere (a), when triggered fuse (b), when the warhead is triggered, (c) and the formation of the covering field (z).

Figure 17 - Simulation results of defeat when approaching aircraft missiles to the aircraft during the attack from the rear hemisphere (a), when triggered fuse (b), when the warhead is triggered, (c) and the formation of the covering field (z).
The first three missiles from this list fall for various reasons (like the warhead and guidance system), while the fourth is an important consideration.
The information and analysis on short-range missiles "Python":
Firstly, since the fourth modification, the missile is equipped with thermal homing matrix type, which allows it, having a relatively small weight of the warhead (about 11 kg), even a large effective hitting aerial targets.
Second, high-explosive warhead of this missile is assembled ready-striking elements.
And finally, the third, according to some open source, in the early 2000s in Georgia were modernized Su-25, in which it has been finalized by the use of missiles, "air-air" type "Python" Fourth and fifth modifications.
Externally, the modified aircraft is no different from other versions of the Su-25, whose presence in the area of ​​armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine is not in doubt.
Usually this type of aircraft to destroy air targets are loaded with missiles "air-air" type R-60, having a rod warhead.
Launch of the "Python" in size slightly larger rocket R-60, but in appearance, they are very similar to each other (Fig. 18). Therefore, we can assume that the presence of airspace in the area of ​​armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine modernized Su-25 missiles "Python" on the suspension could have gone unnoticed.
Therefore, from the whole range of well-known foreign guided weapons complex set of characteristics most closely matches (including the likely applicability) Israeli missile of class "air-to-air" type "Python".

Figure 18 - Appearance on an external sling missiles "Python" (a) and R-60 (b). From the appearance of the photos can be concluded that the missiles have resemblance.

Closing

Thus, as a result of the study found that fragments of the Malaysian passenger plane Boeing-777-200 9M-MRD, crashed 17.07.2014 of the flight, the MH-17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, have damage typical of the action means of destruction (battle damage).
The nature of combat injuries and their relative positions indicate that the defeat of the plane was in the air, most likely, one remote means of destruction, equipped with high-explosive fragmentation warhead with ready-striking elements.
The explosion of the warhead means of destruction took place outside the aircraft at a distance of approximately 0.8 ... 1.6 m from the glass cockpit (opposite pane crew commander).
Warhead weight means of destruction was not more than 40 kg, but she warhead was equipped submunitions average weight of about 3 g at about 2000 ... 4000 pcs. Estimated shape submunitions - a box with sides 8h8h6 mm.
Guidance means of destruction on the plane could be both radar and heat. When radar vectoring means defeat was equipped with homing is most likely passive type, and when the heat - thermal imaging matrix type.
Complex set of characteristics do not match any one guided weapons air targets domestic development and production of class "air - air" and "surface - air" that can hit aircraft at an altitude of about 10 km.
Due to lack of sufficient information on foreign weapons of destruction, including destruction of national development funds, but foreign manufacture (modernization), a specific type of set it is not possible.
From the whole range of well-known foreign guided weapons complex set of characteristics most closely matches (including the likely applicability) Israeli missile of class "air-to-air" type "Python".

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