Thursday, June 18, 2015

Minsk talks: Is there a way out of the impasse?

Minsk talks: Is there a way out of the impasse?

In the Donbas not believe that the truce will be observed

Past the 16th meeting in Minsk subgroups contact group to resolve the situation in the Donbass expectedly ended in a stalemate. Or almost nothing. The authorized representative of the People's Republic of Lugansk (LC) Dane Vladislav , he said that from the Ukraine "is a process of even braking and sabotage."

"Kiev is not responding to proposals DNI and LC on the amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine, in this regard there is no progress", - quotes Dana TASS.

A similar view is shared by the representative of the DNI in the negotiations Denis Pushilin . "It has been a meeting of the three subgroups. We expected more. It is necessary to determine this. Positive steps are, but they are very few, in order to be able to resolve the conflict.And, let's say, to declare a truce, "- said Pushilin.

A somewhat more optimistic about the situation in Ukraine, the OSCE Special Representative, Heidi Tagliavini . In her opinion, "the sub-working groups of the contact group in Ukraine worked constructively, but did not reach a breakthrough."

Coming from the Donbass news say that the war was okay, but the talks - his. And these processes are little overlap between them. June 17, it was noted that the Ukrainian security forces for the first time fired Donetsk volume-detonating ammunition. This information is posted in the "Reports from the militia of New Russia VKontakte". This weapon was made in Soviet times for the destruction of the most powerful fortifications. The use of such weapons in the city is considered to be inhumane, as enshrined in UN documents.

June 17 was also aware of the shooting of two Ukrainian women for the soldiers' suspicion of separatism. " That is, the "truce" turns all the new blood, and no end in sight.

- We do not expect that in the near future, a turning point in the negotiations, - commented, "Free Press" Denis Pushilin. - No evidence of it is not. Probably, it will take many meetings before the result.

"SP": - Second Minsk agreement signed last winter. However, they are not enforced. Is there any point in continuing the talks?

- The problem should be considered together. You can not separate the military and political components. Hoping that without a political settlement will be terminated fire - a big mistake.

Kiev, under various pretexts, in practice, refused to discuss the status of the Donbass. Last aggravation of the situation on the contact line between militias and Ukrainian security services is largely due precisely to the fact that the Ukrainian authorities did not take clear political and economic decisions.

We see that the effectiveness of the negotiations concerned all the participants, except for Ukraine.Both Russia and Europe in the face of the OSCE and the DNI with LC in favor of it, as soon as possible to achieve a peaceful resolution of the conflict. But Ukraine behaves very passively.Members of the contact groups on the Ukrainian side did not speak out for or against our proposals.From the President Poroshenko are extremely contradictory statements. 3 weeks ago, we sent to the Verkhovna Rada a version of the amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine provides for the special status of Donbass. But we did not get any clear answer, no alternative.

"SP": - In this scenario, it is possible to say that in the next few days or even a week will be able to achieve a real cease-fire?

- If Kiev wants it, then everything will be done in a few days. In particular, we are ready to create a demilitarized zone at the contact line between the militias and the Ukrainian security services. But Ukraine, still, or does not hear us, or for us to put forward unacceptable demands for complete disarmament of militias, and so on. D.

"SP": - A few days ago you said that the situation is on the verge of "snowballing growth of" hostilities. Something has changed?

- No, the situation is exactly the same.

"SP": - 15 June, the DNR Alexander Zakharchenko said that the country will not return to the Ukraine and will remain an independent state. How should we understand these words in the context of the Minsk Agreement?

- Zakharchenko meant that the return to Ukraine to normal subjects would not. In the past there is no way. It is necessary to build a new relationship based on the principles of the forced coexistence.

- Minsk negotiation process is sluggish, - says head of the Center for coordination and support of the movement "South-East" Alex Anpilogov. - Politicians and diplomats involved in the negotiations, are inert, no real results, we do not see.

Hence, some fairly radical statements of official representatives of the DNI. Directly, they can not say that the Minsk process of negotiations went into deadlock. But the words of Foreign Minister Alexander Kofman DNR that the republic will have military aid to Transnistria in Ukraine in case of aggression, saying just that in "Minsk-2" in the Donbass no one seriously believes.

Against the background of almost daily deaths from shelling Ukrainian security officials sorts of statements that the talks are "close to a breakthrough," transformed into a perfect farce.

"SP": - How long can such a situation?

- I think that this can not long continue. The inhabitants of Donetsk and Lugansk more often the question arises: why do we need such a "peace" in which people continue to be killed? June 15 at the meeting emerged spontaneously in the Oktyabrsky district of Donetsk was made an appeal to the authorities of the DNI, either we fight and stripped the Ukrainian army from the city, so she could not fire at him, or will it be done by the authorities in another country.

Russia to some extent today is engaged in appeasement. I think the Russian establishment's time to think: are we ready to years in Donbass regularly exterminated Russian and Russian-speaking citizens?

"SP": - At one time Russian politicians made unequivocal statements that the DNI and LC must return to the Ukraine. Last week in this regard - the calm. What is the reason?

- Now, when the shelling intensified Donetsk, Gorlovka and other cities to talk about the return of the country that destroys its own citizens not seem quite appropriate. But Russia's position in this matter, in my opinion, has not changed. This is evident by the fact that Russian diplomats and politicians keep talking about commitment to the Minsk Agreement. And these agreements mean that the DNI and LC - an integral part of Ukraine. If we remove some particular and intricate expressions, "Minsk-2" - just about it.

Even if Kiev recognizes the special status of the Donbass, the constitutional majority of the Ukrainian parliament (which in this case will be representatives of the DNI and LC) simply cancel the membership at the first opportunity.

Or, say, in the Donbas is to operate the law on the special status of the Russian language. But as in the Minsk Agreement no specifics on this issue, the Kiev is free, for example, enter 20 hours per year of the optional study of the Russian language in schools and Donbass announce that this special status and is. Russia And it will have nothing to object to, since there are no other conditions are negotiated.

I'm not sure that in the case of the massacres of the inhabitants of "reunited" with Ukraine Donbass will put the question of the Russian genocide. We now have, according to different estimates from 6 to 50 thousand dead residents of Donbass and no international organization, which must investigate such crimes, it does not say that for it someone has to answer.

"SP": - How do you assess the chances of militias to defeat the Ukrainian Army in the event of the final breakdown of negotiations?

- More winter militia might well liberate the territory Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Now, I think, at best, the militia will "push" the Ukrainian army from the Donetsk and Lugansk on the distance from which it can not bombard the city. Fighting for Marinka shown that the combat capability Ukrainian army is growing faster than the combat capability of the armed forces of New Russia.


No comments:

Post a Comment