Monday, February 16, 2015

US subtly Suggest that Poroshenko as President Ruins their Plans

Black Label for Poroshenko

US subtly Suggest that Poroshenko as President Ruins their Plan
In Kiev Turchinov amplified, and the US administration openly interfering in the affairs of the IMF.
US subtly suggest that Poroshenko as president Ruins their plans. There are plenty of small signs that the Yankees decided to donate the "president who is too inclined to peace talks" and does not carry out a more aggressive policy of turning Ukraine into a "gray zone" for many years mired in chaos and anarchy, with a bankrupt economy and torn on of the raging internal conflict.



Peaceful rhetoric Poroshenko, even a temporary truce and negotiations, they would be arranged, if in the end the real war continued, and not beating fast hireyuschih troops junta, more reminiscent of gang and biting each other.

In the US, does not sit any worst analysts with extensive experience and numerous examples of such wars. They understand that the continuation of the status quo in 2-3 months will lead to the fact that more and more against the escalating militia troops, no one will fight and war-torn territory just fall at the feet of the winner. That does not suit them.



Although started, Poroshenko quite in line with American policy, is in the ruins. Ukraine, during the months of his reign, has inevitably came to the more peaceful member of the junta.

Forced to live in the real world and constantly compromising with Russia, this appointed "president of war" Poroshenko for the second time ordered his troops to cease fire.

But it was initially supposed to tear Ukraine away from Russia, to turn it into a pro-American government Russophobian for distant "European future" ready for years to carry out anti-Russian policy. 

In extreme cases, even to break up and destroy everything on a "do not get you to anybody." Both of these problems Poroshenko failed and must be punished.

However, the "punished" - not quite true. In geopolitics almost no one ever acts under the influence of emotions - all replaces cold calculation. There is a task - not to allow Russia and the European Union trade is mutually beneficial and good-neighborly, creating competition and weakening the United States not only the dollar but also encroaching on the geopolitical monopoly overseas superpower.

Fire in the Ukraine, as well as possible can solve this problem, weakening the right of all US competitors, including those who are officially the faithful to their "friends in Europe" and "strategic partners in NATO."



But there is no place for emotions - "friendship is friendship, and money separately." And the fact that the war party-Yatsenyuk Turchynov and more companies are now in the interests of the United States, makes the situation particularly precarious for Poroshenko.

Competitors within the junta tolerate it exclusively as a cover under which allocates money to the West. And right now in Washington it is decided - to take or leave Poroshenko finding almost any legal way to remove him from power. And that's the way it is.


I repeatedly wrote that already the second tranche of the IMF loan stood under a big question. But it is still identified, albeit with a delay (in early September). And it is only because the amount was tiny (less than half a billion dollars - 1.39), and the rationale of the armistice iron - the need dovooruzhit wrecked military junta, not only demoralized but lishivshuyusya boilers much of heavy weapons - especially tanks and self-propelled artillery pieces.

The White House was still hoping that sanctions will keep supplies militias aid from Russia, but still potentially powerful military industry residues of Ukraine (only tank repair companies more than a dozen) allows you to quickly create powerful fist, able to break the resistance of the rebels against the junta.

That was generally true, if we remember that the beginning of September, there was no unified army of New Russia and even the individual republics, the command is actually in the hands of tens of warlords. Subsequent events have shown that the creation of a unified VSN breakaway republic was also favorably truce. And break they used better junta.

As a result, a truce was delayed, and the situation only got worse for Kiev. Within four months of the militia and was able to begin the formation of a unified army, and satiate her armor (about 520 tanks and armored vehicles 800-900), conventional and rocket artillery (600-700 barrels of more than 100 mm) in amounts comparable to enter the army junta (350 tanks, 800 armored vehicles and up to 800 barrels of all calibers).

Moreover, the militia received Refurbished equipment and troops of the junta - somehow restored technique with long-term storage warehouses. Further truce became increasingly clear to the United States meaningless. Of particular irritation caused the realization that leave the territory of Ukraine in its sphere of influence has not come out. Consequently - "do not get you to anybody." More precisely - Get the maximum devastated - that for years had to recover and spend.

By the end of December in the economy of Ukraine was available for residues of a complete collapse, not giving the junta opportunity to finance the war, and the industry has not been translated into a war footing, the slogan "everything for the front - all to win" is not sounded, and a truce was more obvious beneficial militias is much more than the junta.

In these circumstances, the United States moved to support a proven team-Yatsenyuk Turchynov, in which the latter play a key role. In the same way as after the coup in February-May 2014. Let me remind you that at that time was supported financially and politically it is their group - the first tranche ($ 3.5 billion) IMF gave it a premiere Yatsenyuk and Acting President Turchinov before the appointment of Poroshenko President.

This was the only case in the history of the IMF, issued when money is absolutely illegal government (not in the Constitution of Ukraine positions acting president) just two months after an armed coup. But it was!
  

At year end, the pressure on the Americans Poroshenko increased.As a result, the IMF decided to postpone the release of the third tranche of the loan, and Russia began defiantly deliver militias models of equipment, which Ukraine can not be in principle.Moreover, in January, the IMF mission demonstratively left Kiev without a decision, and officials have started talking about the impossibility of fund disbursement because of the failure conditions of the loan (not released Donbass).

And it was the allocation of funds to guarantee the inviolability West Poroshenko. It was under his legitimacy of the West recognized the junta. Vector forces began to shift toward Turchinov and his team.Are prerequisites for almost a legitimate transfer of the full power.

As a result, in the beginning of January gets huge powers of the Security Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, whose secretary is Turchinov.After that, in the case of adding the president of his duties (as a result of death, for example, or flight) and the imposition of martial law, the first person in Kiev with a truly dictatorial powers it becomes Turchinov.

Scheme psevdolegitimnoy transfer of power and created in the middle of the month the junta troops are attempting to unlock the "cyborg" in Donetsk airport. The truce is terminated, the army junta goes on the offensive. More precisely - tries.

Absolute numbers of registration, lack of unified command, corruption and fraud, lack of acceptance of this war, frank and massive wrecking job of defense enterprises played with the leadership of the Kiev Bandera mode cruel joke. On paper, the army junta has absolute numerical advantage. The number of volunteers was assessed by the General Staff in a maximum of 40 thousand. Bayonets, including at the time of not more than 6 thousand. Volunteers from Russia.

A junta troops in a combat zone reached a total of 100 thousand. In fact, besides the 50000th army group there were more than 30 thousand. National Guard, to 10 thousand. Illegal armed groups, will not included in the person of AQL "Right sector" and other Bandera battalions of the security services, border guards and Interior Ministry. All this power in a time of truce was expanded with more than a thousand units of tanks and other armored vehicles, conventional and rocket artillery.

The guide junta failed to realize that the power of the army Driven soldiers have no motivation and demoralized the army rather than enhance it.

Already in the early days of the assault Airport born described presidential adviser Yuri Biryukov principle - "call for a meeting of commanders 4 tanks, comes 3, 2 position travel, shoot begins 1 and seeing his loneliness, too, retires."

In addition to this it was found that with great fanfare Poroshenko personally transmitted to the troops appliances often do not even get to the front line or fails after the first shot. In addition to the "human factor" effect and objective - it is all made at least 25 years ago and kept in an ugly state.




All most whole quality or were sold for a quarter of a century, or received in the army and was destroyed in the last months of fighting.

As a result, after two weeks it has become apparent - the offensive junta failed miserably. Moreover, it turns into a defeat not only in the vicinity of the airport in Donetsk, but also on Debaltsevskom bridgehead, quickly turned into a full pot.

No wonder that in the end of January it became known that US Secretary of State John Kerry personally visited the headquarters of the IMF and he also insisted on the suspension of consideration of the next tranche of Ukrainian credit. This is not just a scandal - a demonstrative step - never the US administration (and Kerry foreign minister) did not interfere in the affairs so clearly the IMF.

As a result, the IMF has "postponed to clarify" its decision on the allocation of credits to Ukraine as approved last year the program Stand-by, and in the "Extended Fund Facility program» Extended Fund Facility.

And that absolutely clear to Poroshenko, he received a "black mark", the US Ambassador to NATO. It turns out that Russian troops in eastern Ukraine is not enough. They only take up command posts and control modern technology.

But it is impossible in this case to talk about the threat of a full-scale invasion, said February 4, US Ambassador to NATO, Douglas Lute. Speaking at a press briefing on the eve of the meeting of defense ministers of countries - members of the alliance, the diplomat said that Russian security services are trying to control the actions of the militia, but they did not always succeed.


"They [Russian] have created something like a parallel command structure that oversees the command structure of the separatists in an attempt to control what is happening on the ground - said Lute. - They only partially succeeded. We do not believe that they have absolute control over the separatist groups, but we believe that they are trying. "

In fact, it is a carte blanche for any actions militias, which have correct name of the Armed Forces of New Russia (WPC) or army LDNR - with Russia removed completely (though not all) responsibility.

US Ambassador to NATO said that Russian soldiers run modern Russian military equipment because such equipment, including electronic warfare (EW) and air defense systems, can not be transmitted to people who do not have the appropriate skills.Meadow recalled that in the US it takes years to train the handling of this technique.

That is, the ambassador officially dismissed stories of the same Poroshenko in Davos that the fighting in the east of 9000 soldiers of the regular army of Russia. A counselor? What advisers? There are thousands junta with foreign passports operate everywhere - from the battalions of the National Guard and Security Service (FSB analogue) to just ministers and their deputies in the government Yatsenyuk.



In general, Poroshenko arrived in Munich with a very weak position.

In a city where traditionally fall through coups and sold the entire state, he was forced to bring the cover of Russian passports, asking for money to continue the war rather extravagant way and actually dozrev to the conclusion of the second truce in Minsk.

Meeting "Norman Four" in the capital of Belarus actually came down to the solo part of Putin. His task was complicated enough - to distance Russia from happening, create the conditions in Germany and France nice to get out of the open support of the junta and write such a document to Poroshenko did not dare immediately upon returning to Kiev. As a result, almost 17 hours of negotiations succeeded.

The documents do not mention the Crimea and Russia. All agreed in the document concessions junta (regaining control over the border, elections in the LC and the DNI, ...) are furnished with so many preconditions that are essentially unenforceable.



But, at the same time, sound and look beautiful. No wonder Poroshenko immediately upon his return declared victory "Ukrainian diplomacy" - no federalization "One Ukraine", "triumph of European values." And, of course, a ceasefire while respecting the principle (for the troops of the junta), "not a step back."

At the same time the IMF in the face of Christine Lagarde announced the decision to allocate 17.5 billion dollars Kiev under the new credit facility fund. But (!), As it turned out a few days later, for a reason.

The money, and the head of the IMF, the amount could rise to $ 40 billion by attracting other lenders will be allocated only if the decision to approve the Board of Directors. Moreover, the first tranche of the loan is not received before March. And only if Kiev to completely redo the state budget for 2015 and adopt a program of drastic savings.


In fact, before the junta put such conditions, which will lead to the collapse and social upheaval - the reduction of social spending, the dismissal of a quarter million civil servants, increase in utility costs 4-6 times, and many other measures dobyuschie already impoverished population rapidly residues Ukraine. Run, at least formally, these conditions can only be with the introduction of the Nazi dictatorship and the provision of function generation suppression of social protests.

This is what leadership is rapidly slipping junta. Poroshenko, who was forced to go on permanent assignment group Turchinov, Yatsenyuk speaks directly about the imposition of martial law in the event that the truce is broken. And it will be broken - the head of the "Right sector" Dmitry Yarosh and a number of MPs - Bandera battalions commanders openly declared that they would not comply with the terms of the armistice.

Just 2 hours after the start of the truce on the website of the National Guard, it was reported that two battalions of the "right sector" are successful offensive in Debaltseve. However, by the morning news was gone, and he Yarosh said that they comply with the cease-fire, but "ready for action".

In general, it comes down to the fact that today a unique situation.European Union, Russia, BCH and Poroshenko seek long as possible comply with the terms of the armistice. That suits both the General Staff and its own armed forces of Ukraine (military personnel). On the other, the United States, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, NSDC Secretary Turchinov and Nazi battalions seek to disrupt the truce, putting the blame on the BCH and forcing the president to impose martial law until February 22 - the anniversary of the armed revolution.
 
And they have every chance to succeed. In late February, in any event, will hold a meeting in Kiev thousands, if not tens of thousands of a variety of groups. Including having at the hands of a huge number of weapons insurgents accustomed to kill. If at this point Poroshenko will force to impose martial law, and the situation will worsen significantly Debaltsevskom boiler (most likely), the revolution is not just possible. A virtually inevitable.

Under conditions of martial law overthrow Poroshenko under any pretext (renunciation of power, escape, death at the hands of unidentified Kremlin agents) automatically turns the NSDC Secretary Turchinov in the head of state with unlimited dictatorial powers. It goes back to full power and functions of government and parliament are reduced in this case to a purely nominal.

Such developments allows the United States to recognize what is happening on the remains of Ukraine "legitimate change of power in an open aggression of Russia" and to continue to support a regime that will inevitably and quickly (within a few months) will fall, but to complete the task - to destroy the remnants of Ukraine, inflicting maximum damage.

Restore the same torn down and Russia have all of us. We have the right - not the first time.

Author: Michael Onufrienko

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