Friday, January 30, 2015

"The United States will withdraw from the Ukraine. And try to leave as quietly as possible"

Political scientist James Kunstler: "The United States will withdraw from the Ukraine. And try to leave as quietly as possible"

Author of a number of political and social studies, which have become bestsellers in the US writer James Kunstler made ​​in the media as a surprise to American opinion. He said the United States will throw the Ukraine, and the losing party will be Europe, as Russia made ​​a turn to the east. In an exclusive interview with "Evening Moscow" writer gave his explanation of what is happening in the world of events. 

- Good afternoon, Mr. Kunstler, I am a journalist of the newspaper "Evening Moscow" ... 
 Yes, sir, your words even reached Russia. And I have some questions: 

-You say that America will abandon Ukraine in a difficult situation. How so? 

-- US Department of State during the Maidan promised support, and voiced specific amounts, Kiev was promised help in $ 19 billion. 

-Is Washington willing to turn away from their partners?

-- I really think so. America goes, because the project, which they started in the Ukraine proves unsuccessful. From what I can tell, the US lost interest in the situation in Ukraine and I do not think they want to become a nurse-maid for the country. - The whole nation, the Ukrainians believed in support from the United States, living people. 

-You say, "lost interest"?... 

-- Yes let us remember that Ukraine is in dire economic situation. I can assume that the Ukrainian people will take help from anyone who will offer it. From any geopolitical group from anyone who offers them money, they will help. But I think the point is that neither the US nor its European allies are not able to afford to continue to pump billions of dollars into what is becoming an economic "black hole". They will not last long, I think that the situation will not last more than a year. And in the long run it will be clear that Ukraine is and always has been in the Russian sphere of influence. 
Efforts to expand the American and European influence to Russia's borders were ill-conceived project. 

-What seems to be the return of Ukraine to Russia

--To date, the government in Kiev is set extremely negative towards Moscow. They will wait for the next coup. We can see clearly how precarious a position is now the government of Ukraine. In fact, all of the state may be subject to collapse and reorganization. I do not rule out a new revolution or coup. The current government is not meant to be there forever. If they fail the economy, people get rid of them, or a certain part of this nation. I do not think the US or Europe have the physical capability to project power so far. Certainly not the United States. US only now beginning to learn the limits of their capabilities to project power around the world. They just closed several of their bases in Europe, and it seems to me that there is a likelihood that there will be even more closed of our bases around the world, simply because we can not afford them. I have written several books on these phenomena, one of them «Long Emergency» («Long catastrophe" - "VM") was published in 2005, its sequel «Too much magic» («Too much magic" - "VM") in 2012. In these books, I tried to make out a fairly simple idea. Global disposition changes, the global economy has lost control. The greatest nations of the world are retreating to their corners on the planet. And they will have fewer opportunities to project its power and strength than those abilities that they had in the past. Yes, there are still nuclear missiles. However, the likelihood of beneficial use is minimal. We are left with the conventional tools of power projection, which is very inconvenient for the US and the rest of Europe. Attempts to control the Middle East and their populations have been unsuccessful. All this has led only to a giant waste of our resources. I do not believe that we can continue to waste our resources in such a way, and we will not continue to do so. And stop trying to support Ukraine. It seems to me that we (the US - a comment. "VM") just quietly departed thence. And we will try to leave as quietly as possible. Sooner or later, it becomes obvious that Ukraine is in the interests of Russia. And, it is responsible for. Although, now that Russia would be extremely reluctant to help, only that the country has not collapsed. Moscow will remind people of Ukraine that from now on they are responsible for their own economic security. And we can assume that they will - the basis of Ukraine's economy will be the grain trade. Needless to say, because control over the east of the country is completely lost. Who can say what will happen with the industrial part of the country? The West will not be able to project its power there. 

- On the projection of force. NATO leaders announced the introduction of a rapid reaction corps in the Baltic countries, directly to the Russian border. Is there any chance the start of full-scale conflict? 

-- I think it's just a stupid theatrical performance. Perhaps, in order to save face and to restore confidence in NATO. I do not think that their actions pose a serious threat. This is an unfriendly gesture that will not bring any political gains. 

- Sir, finally, do you think that Russia and the United States will ever be able to restore good relations? 

-- I do not see why we need to be in such a tense relationship. I think that Barack Obama's policies are very poorly thought and calculated. No one really does not make a profit from this new cooling of relations. They came up against the idea that they will change the balance of power, which has existed for a very long time, and to project its power in remote corners of the planet. I'm talking about the US government projections, Russia and its former republics. It is obvious that the Crimea is a part of Russia. The idea that we have to put a spoke in the wheel of Russia, which is trying to stabilize the region is ridiculous. I think that the policy of the current US administration in the last two years, very stupid. And we are very quiet get away from Ukraine, because this whole situation - a humiliation for the United States. We have not achieved anything there, but managed to destroy the fragile stability of the region economically. In fact, we do not have the resources to support their economies. We can only make short-term gestures of support, but not in the long run. Ukraine will have to establish a fruitful relationship with their neighbors. Russia and Eastern Europe ... - But America - the richest country. They promised to those billions of Ukraine and the US economy as a whole is a tiny amount ... - Well, you could say that, but in fact America - bankrupt. We pretend that we have economic resources greater than it actually is. We can create new money on the computer and distribute them to other countries, and large banks. But, sooner or later it will become clear that the money - not real. In general, will soon re-evaluation of the value of currencies and the true value of things. At the moment, all in the global economy has erroneous value, including money. We do not even know whether these are real money. We can say that we will give Ukraine 20 billion. But if we give them every year, Every month, Sooner or later it will become clear that this money is not real. We can say that America - the richest country in the world and it really was a very wealthy. But today, she approached the limits of the possible in their own economy and financial system. And next year, perhaps these boundaries will be passed. 

SUMMARY James Howard Kunstler - American writer, blogger and social activist, author of several best-selling books on politics and on the topic of social urbanism USA. He is a regular columnist for The Rolling Stone magazine, The New York Times, has lectured at colleges and universities, including Cambridge and Yellen.

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