Sunday, January 11, 2015

On the military situation in the New Russia January 12, 2015 by colonelcassad


Dnr Donbass-Republic
today at 4:13 pm


SOUTHEAST! Raccoons!
Today at 4:02 pm

On the military situation in the New Russia January 12, January 12, 1: 40 / colonelcassad Brief important. I hope hysterics after activating the junta attacks Novorossia already passed, so in essence and in passing on a lie. 
1. Was rumored that the artillery VSN is not responsible for the shelling of the junta. This is not true. Even the fact that the species was withdrawn from the front lines, to "demonstrations of peace" has returned. In recent days to meet the shelling and mortars, and artillery and MLRS, adjusted for certain superiority of the junta within a quantity of trunks. Reliably determine the effectiveness of fire across the front of course by the impossible. Both sides are held accountable for losses (and there may overstate how and understate) and destruction, but what is the effectiveness of such attacks per day - hard to say, I believe that even the local military has only approximately, estimates of the effects of fire on positions of the junta, just well as the junta collapses snyaradami city of Donbass, only very vaguely imagine what the real damage it inflicts military and civilian infrastructure, the fire is mostly carried out on the area. More or less objective information is probably going at brigade command / shell, which receives obektivka, plus a line of human intelligence in the camp of the enemy. 
2. Was rumored that the alleged attacks on Russian TV in the Donbas not show a procession of the Pharisees show in Paris. This is not true. Part of channels such as Life-News and shown to fire, so to speak about the lack of any reference is not necessary, though of course it was obvious what today in news coverage given priority. Overall - military events back to September-October glow (temporarily or permanently, it is not clear), and even more media coverage in December. I believe that if the current intensity of the fighting and shelling will continue for 2-3 days, then trim the media coverage. 
3.Bred panic that went Donetsk planes junta. First, we must understand that aviation in the junta after the summer losses not so much - certainly something repaired, something restored, but the intense fighting in the existing system of defense, and it is in the territory of New Russia if someone does not know, has the systemic nature of available aircraft and helicopters will be used up very quickly. Spending a few machines to attack residential areas of Donetsk is a very questionable tactic, given the fact that these problems are solved much better as heavy artillery and MLRS. Aviation can be used for attacks on mechanized columns BCH headquarters, repair bases and fuel depots and ammunition. But here we must understand that this should be overcome air defense system, which with high probability will be lost (and in fact they were back in May, when the air defense militias as such is absent and the first helicopters shot down not only of the few MANPADS, but even an RPG and light machine guns. This does not mean that aviation junta can not 1-2-3 times somewhere successfully bombed, but talk about some great successes that it can be expected in the sky Donbass, is not necessary. People have forgotten the summer " samoletopad "and bred panic, saying the Nazis again planes. They have previously stayed (in the autumn of active teaching in the area of Dnepropetrovsk, including for operations at low altitudes, just in order to overcome some of the elements of air defense of New Russia), just think on a minute, why are they for a long time do not fly to attack positions BCH. But it remained attack helicopters too concerned. 
4. Regarding the offensive. While there is no occurrence. There are shootings. It is important not to confuse the shelling of residential areas with the onset of the assault teams and mechanized units . Was to understand the difference - in 1941 the German attack on Leningrad was stopped Zhukov, that did not stop the Germans for a long time to shell the city with heavy artillery. Of course, all the military power of the state of New Russia on the preparation of the offensive, as they see before them elementary front line where the accumulated vital force and equipment of the enemy. And if there is an accumulation of forces, the military naturally concludes that preparing an offensive, because they assess the situation, "Science", and do not fall into hysterics at the sight of a passing away BMP. It is therefore logical that when the enemy behind the front line begins to actively maneuver reserves and conduct a massive artillery preparation, the military structures of the DNI and LC are beginning to sound the alarm, because there is no one wants a repeat the sad history of "Krajina". Information from the military and LC DNI comes to Russia and already there is relayed by Russian media as it is not just once or twice there. In such cases, it is better safe than nedobdet, although of course many confused that offensive talk about for a long time and almost everything, but it is not. But then again, I can only recall only in 1941, where intelligence from March bombarded Stalin and the Politburo periods beginning of the war and a possible attack of Nazi Germany. It is important to realize that the timing is determined not Zaharchenko and military intelligence DNR and not even Putin in Moscow. Dates of the onset APU defines leadership junta after a visual signal from Washington and nothing else. Reliable information on such terms, if they exist or are planned for the near future, may have on our side either technical or human intelligence, which upon receipt of such data will inform about the established threat to Moscow, then this information will be lowered in the command structure and the DNI LC. Of course, the work of this information relates to secret and none of its network for the amusement of the host sofa will not spread. Therefore, as previously satisfied with the information that the military leadership of New Russia considers it necessary to make public. 
5. Regarding the potential dangers of such a military scenario (compared to the existing diplomatic impasse)? On looking for is not in the junta's overwhelming superiority in men, if we take the whole front. There is a general superiority in numbers, but the vast superiority of the junta can only be created for a number of selected areas of the main shock. Starting in January next wave of mobilization in Ukraine serves the purpose of rotation and increasing the number of parts of the junta in the Donbas. However, try to attack everywhere regardless of the configuration of the front, terrain, and the balance of power, as it was summer, the junta can not, therefore options with military victory viewed through the prism serial address key challenges offensive, like a breakthrough to Izvarino / Novosvetlovke from the village of Lugansk, cutting Gorlovka projection deblokady airport and taking the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, etc. These plans, scraps that you sometimes can see the messages militias in social networks, actively working on the real leadership of BCH and it already exists developed countermeasures , in case the junta goes on the offensive in the current group. Troops deployed Novorossia exactly to arrest the possibility of a breakthrough in the direction of the main potential impacts. So saying, he knows whether the command about possible military threats can reasonably say that yes - they know, getting ready. Another question is how the plans are adequate to the threat and the current balance of forces. Evaluation in this respect by getting involved I different. If talking about the fall of a 100% guarantee that "if the climb, then divide", now on the background of the same iron certainty that in open battle junta will be broken, indicate that the balance of power in the foreseeable future can not change our benefits, plus indicate that some aspects of the response to contain certain defects at the level of planning. But in general, talk about the complete military defeat of New Russia now is not necessary, the current size and configuration of the group BCH reliably cropped this opportunity. 
6. Regarding the attacks. Most of them does not affect the military infrastructure VSN from the word at all. Shelling of residential areas of heavy artillery and MLRS is a purely military offense. Such attacks do not affect the positions BCH, BCH and battery technology clusters BCH, stupid missiles fly to the cities and their suburbs destroying houses, social infrastructure, killing civilians. This continued for a long time sounded full and special hidden lines junta related to the fact that "Donbass will either Ukrainian or destroyed." As guaranteed to get back Donbass junta could neither military nor diplomatic means, in the face of continuing economic blockade, the fascist junta as before rather primitive destroys the Donbass, solving several problems. The first is the destruction of the hostile territory of the junta. Second of all, it is a signal to the RF before the next round of negotiations on the New Russia, they say, see what happens if you do not kapituliruete. And third, under the guise of renewed terrorist attacks, it is possible to carry out local actions, such as reconnaissance under Lugansk. Say that the attacks are random, that there are some contumacious punishers Kiev - is not necessary. Bute systematically and purposefully, as befits the Nazis. In my opinion the possibility of renewed intense fighting is very high, as even from the point of view of action of mechanized soedininy, to advance in terms of land podmerzshie unlike simpler than in the spring, when there will be an impassable gryazyuka. Here again I refer to the Second World War and recalls the spring period of calm at the front, where the state of the soil last but not played a role in the planning of offensive operations. General Staff from both sides certainly take into account this factor. There are today and suddenly great news, our after quite a long break like as recaptured junta town Novotoshkovka (if I understand correctly, it is to the west of Slavyanoserbsky - and sources for antiques have expressed doubts that the BCH controls seychsas this village). 
7."Our first attack on Novotoshkovku was repulsed. Then we hit again - we were joined by two companies of Cossacks. For the enemy approached company and 2 tanks. But Novotoshkovka was taken by the militia. At the moment, there are fixed units VSN. We have the same on the 31st block was quiet. Now there is a heavy fire Slavyanosrebska, militia responsible for Trehizbenke. APU use mortars and Grad. We also use the Castle and howitzers and 10 minutes ago joined ACS Acacia and Carnation. I would say that the APU preparing for a major offensive. But on our site will not be a strong blow. Strikes are by Debaltseve and villages. Happiness is excluded because there we also surpassed the enemy in some parameters. The morale of the APU in spite of everything weaker and weaker. We recapture any enemy attack.Who we are failing - it's panic, which are bred by our enemies. APU really become stronger a little, but not enough to restore its power and superiority as it was in the beginning of the war. Previously, they were superior to us in others dozens of times in the art, they generally have suppressed. Now their superiority in people - 2 times. In technique 3 times. In artillery 2 times + power (they have more Smerch MLRS and hurricanes). Airspace they closed our MANPADS and SAM. A drain is not what is not. Do not panic, but do not relax. It will be difficult and we have a lot of work at all! "(C)" Owl " In this regard, the author can only agree (as well as a rough estimation of the correlation of forces), panic result of military actions of the opponent, the last thing. 
8. The junta has not even attack has not started, and already divorced fit - all bombed, fly planes that nobody shoots back, and the like. Again, from a military point of view (I do not consider here stalemate political situation, which for Novorossia really hard, and in parts of the economy close to catastrophic) situation is under control. The current VSN group as a whole is sufficient to repel a possible strike. The task of the junta at the moment, to achieve more impressive superiority in men and material and simultaneously destroy the economic infrastructure of Donbass. In good time the junta will go on the offensive in order to repeat the scenario Serbian Krajina. By this it will push Washington if the political capitulation to achieve Russian Donbass not fail. Russia as well as in the fall will feed VSN in adequate volume, so the balance of power was not very threatening. As far as I know, is still carried out in November a set of measures in this direction, so that in addition to the current measures (job-related "PX") for relief of the possible consequences of the onset of the junta, there are steps and let's say obschestrategicheskogo military, which has already taken in connection with a in November the understanding that the war with the United States (not only in Ukraine) the long haul. 

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