Wednesday, August 13, 2014

If the humanitarian aid from Russia did cross the border, a Skeptical Ukie's (analysis)


If the convoy with humanitarian aid from Russia did cross the border (analysis)

By Garmata
08.12.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine
A few days ago, almost at midnight, a message came from the presidential administration of Ukraine that Russia planned an invasion disguised as “a convoy of humanitarian aid.” Such information sounded just crazy, it was difficult to comprehend it completely. But just yesterday the Internet was filled with photos of white KAMAZ trucks, and Putin announced that the convoy had already left.
Let us imagine for a moment that Moscow was able to send this convoy across the border.

What has been loaded onto the white KAMAZes?

You’d be surprised, but for the most part–it’s just humanitarian aid, not weapons or ammunition. The very first cars are loaded with “humanitarian aid,” their task is to organize the cover.
There’s only one caveat–the generators, tents, sleeping bags, food, water filters, medications, are all products of “dual use.” A mechanized infantry battalion needs these things no less than a hospital or maternity home. Just look at what our volunteers have collected for the army.
But clearly “peaceful” loads are present here as well, and these are baby food and toys and other things that are so necessary for those people of Donbas, who have not left their homes, even despite the war. Do not rush to become indignant and outraged, you need to finish reading the article to the end to understand all of Putin’s treachery.

Secret cargo in white KAMAZ trucks

Weapons and ammunition, even some military equipment–are all loaded onto the second wave of KAMAZes. They will cross the border and go to the unloading locales only if the Army of Ukraine doesn’t meet them en route.
In many vehicles, there is another secret cargo, which even the drivers don’t know about. These are explosives with a remote detonator. If the RF [Russian Federation] wants to make a provocation, then to do this they don’t even need to call their pocket terrorists. Simply, someone invites camera crews from LifeNews, a photographer from RIA news, and presses the button.

“Hurry to see, exclusive video–Ukrainian punishers are shooting missiles at humanitarian aid, volunteers, and civilians that were lined up [to receive aid]“–such titles could appear in the media.
How did they manage to load all this? Yes, it was a very simple [task], just look at the place of loading:
Navalny [Head of the Russian Progress Party]: The humanitarian convoy left Alabino in Naro-Fominsk Raion [district]. And what is Alabino? It is the Taman Motorized Rifle Division. So much for the “MES” [Ministry of Emergency Situations].
But don’t think that the convoy with humanitarian aid from Russia is completely defenseless and harmless. To understand where the weapons are hidden, you need to look at


The composition of the humanitarian convoy

So, the humanitarian aid is driven by 300 KAMAZes, 40 vans and 40 cars, including the Russian police cars accompanying the convoy. What do you think, will the police leave the cargo at the customs office or proceed with the convoy to the point of unloading?

Let’s count the drivers

So, 380 vehicles, 2 persons per vehicle. This is–the minimum, the road is far, it’s dangerous to go alone. 380 + 380 = 760. The full staff of a motorized infantry battalion. 4 companies of 150 people + headquarters + the provisions unit, will make about 700 people.
Pay attention to the military plates
But who said that a car should only have 2 people? And where are the volunteers who will help unload and distribute the “humanitarian aid”? According to our estimates, there must be about close to 1,500 people in the convoy. The balance is roughly:
  • 2 companies of the Army Special Forces, 120 people in each.
  • 4 reinforced infantry companies of the Taman Division, at 150 people in each. These are all the drivers and volunteers.
  • 2 consolidated companies formed from the special units of the Interior Ministry, 120 people. This is the police that is accompanying the cargo. Not to be confused with OMON [the riot police], gathered here are practically the army commandos, these subdivisions are staffed with fighters of different units performing major combat operations in Dagestan.
  • 2 consolidated companies of the FSB Spetsnaz, 120 people in each. Where can you go without the FSB? All of the “doctors,” “members of the public,” even “the press accompanying the convoy”–that’s [who] all of them [are]. Division into “companies” here is purely conventional, involving experts from various departments of the FSB.
  • 1 consolidated company of MES [Ministry of Emergency Services], 150 people. The Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations is a paramilitary structure, which has its own APCs and tanks. In the convoy, they should carry out the tasks of engineers and repairmen.
  • 1 consolidated company of internal troops, 150 people. And these have to work with the crowds, when the local population starts to receive “free grub”as it is called in Donbas, there might be a stampede.
    These, of course, are approximate data, but they reflect the overall picture.
And you should try to drive through the Russian Federation without the plates

Vans and cars from the humanitarian convoy

This is where the weapons are being transported. It is clear that the police officers who are accompanying this convoy, which is transporting such an abundance of material assets, cannot travel without weapons. Only in some U.S. states, policemen manage to do this with a simple handgun, or, in extreme cases, a shotgun.
The valiant police (all guys–as at selection, are 185 cm [6.1'] tall, not a single “traffic cop” with a potbelly) are armed with automatic and machine guns, there is even a grenade launcher in the trunk.
Military plates again. Do you even have civilian vehicles?
Military plates again. Do they have a single civilian vehicle?


The weapons have already been delivered

There is no need to bring a large amount of weapons, since the tanks, IFVs, APCs, self-propelled artillery, etc. is already on the territory of Ukraine. As well as light weapons. Recall what armories the “militia” left in Sloviansk. And how much equipment and weapons got left behind in Lysychansk! The Donbas Battalion that seized these warehouses, turned into the best-equipped volunteer unit in the world.

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KAMAZ [trucks] can be loaded on the fly

There is one more nuance. A convoy that consists of 380 vehicles will at minimum spread out to 10 kilometers [6.2 miles]. This is if they drive closely [to each other]. And what if they keep the distance of 50 meters [164 feet]? Then they will end up with 22 [13.6 miles] or even 25 kilometer-long [15.5 mile-long] convoy.
"Мама, мы чисто красные крестоносцы". Толи гуманитарии, толи гуманоиды.
“Mom, we are the bearers of Red Cross”. Either humanitarians, or humanoids.









The head vehicle has long been on Ukrainian territory already, and the tail of the convoy is in the Russian Federation. In Rostov Oblast [region]. Right in the location, where more than 20,000 soldiers and officers, not counting equipment and weapons, are deployed. Who prevents [them] from loading a battalion or two into the last vehicles?
And who prevents [them] from make another pass, at delivering a little more humanitarian aid in an hour, two hours or in a day?

The place of border crossing

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The location of the convoy entry into Ukraine is the checkpoint “Dolzhansky.” Then it [the convoy] moves on M03 / E50 [highway] to Krasnyi Luch, then turns in the direction of Torez, and then–on to Khartsyzsk and Donetsk, moving on the N21 [highway].
A few days later, the second convoy is introduced, only in the direction of Luhansk, through Izvaryne, Krasnodon and Molodogvardijsk.
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Convoy met by [pro-Russian] “militia”

Immediately after crossing the border, the “militia” meet the convoy in their cars, as expected–with guns and Russian flags. Now Russian soldiers can breathe easy–if anything, they can always disguise themselves as the “militias.”
Terrorists seemingly take the humanitarian aid under their protection, they immediately claim that the Ukrainian military are going to destroy it from the air. To resist such attacks, they [terrorists] not only have “Igla” MANPADS, but also the mobile complex “Strela-10.”
Screen Shot 2014-08-12 at 12.35.36 PM








And right at the checkpoint on the Russian side, of course, an S-300 is deployed, part of which can be seen in the video of the convoy formation. The range of this piece is so wide that it isn’t necessary to bring it to Ukraine, it can fire from the territory of Russia. And as for the downed aircraft–it can be written off on the “frog.”

Screen Shot 2014-08-12 at 12.36.46 PM

Unloading sites

All unloading sites exactly coincide with the locations of the most intense armed fights. The task of the Ukrainian army is to cut highways M03 and N21, on which provisions for the main terrorist formations get delivered from the Russian Federation. The task of the “humanitarians” is to prevent them [from doing this].

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Islands of safety

The first few KAMAZ [trucks] stop in Krasnyi Luch, by an absurd coincidence, just between the terrorists and the Ukrainian army. They constitute something that will be later called the “islands of security” or “humanitarian zones,” Rospropaganda [Russian propaganda] is notorious for vivid definitions.
The bottom line is simple–the vehicles get into the circle, the locals are convened/called, “volunteers” begin to give out “humanitarian aid” to them. This is done very, very slowly. At first, lists are compiled, then there is a roll call, then they start to give out [the aid]. [You] stood in line for a few hours–[you] get a kilo of buckwheat. Now you can get in line for the baby food.
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The task is to create a constant accumulation of peaceful civilians around the vehicles. How did Putin say this? “We will put women and children in front of us, and let them [Ukrainian servicemen] attempt to shoot.”

Provocation will take place, it simply cannot but take place

How does Putin work? At first, he legalizes one tank (seized from the Ukrainian servicemen, found at an abandoned [military] base), and then he brings in 10, 20, even 100 tanks.
Разгрузка гуманитарной помощи в Донецке. Еще в конце апреля.
Unloading humanitarian aid in Donestk. End of April.





 And so it’s the same situation here–he needs a reason to legalize his “peacekeepers.” How should [he] do it? Yes, it is a very simple [solution]–to blow up several of KAMAZ tucks so that civilians get killed. This would give [him] an excuse to introduce a small number, just one platoon of soldiers with a blue stripe on their helmets. And under this brand, the Russian Federation will transfer across the border those same 20,000 [servicemen] from Rostov Oblast

And here’s the article in the Russian media about the humanitarian aid to Donbas [in Russian]:

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